Adam Mancini's S&P 500 (SPX/ES Futures) Trade Companion

Articles

SPX Tries A Bounce But Can It Stick? CPI Tomorrow Decides. March 12 Plan

Mar 11, 2025 | tradecompanion.substack.com | Adam Mancini

Yesterday was a unique day in ES for two big reasons. Firstly, it was the first open-to-close red trend day since February 21st (which, coincidentally, was the day the current correction began). As readers know, days like this are rare in ES, even in bear markets (ES tends to flush hard for a few hours and cover lots of space, then squeeze, to close net red). Secondly, it was the largest single red day since the August 5th 2024, capitulatory low, from which we bottomed after a 600 point sell.
Is Capitulation Near For SPX? March 11 Plan

Mar 10, 2025 | tradecompanion.substack.com | Adam Mancini

Last week into this week has been one for the record books in ES. We had three red weeks in a row, for the first time since the July into early August 2024 correction. Not only that, but in the last 14 trading days, only 3 were green, and those three green days (which included last Friday), were all isolated, with ES unable to stack back to back green days since February 19th.
Biggest Red Week For SPX Since The Last Bear Market. Now What? March 10 Plan

Mar 9, 2025 | tradecompanion.substack.com | Adam Mancini

NOTE: This is resend of the newsletter for Monday March 10th, originally sent out on Friday at 4pm, for those who did not receive. This week was one for the record books. The market - being bombarded nonstop by Tariff headlines - put in the most volatile week since the first week of August 2024 at least and in my personal opinion its been the most volatile week since Covid.
Biggest Red Week For SPX Since The Last Bear Market. Now What? March 10 Plan

Mar 7, 2025 | tradecompanion.substack.com | Adam Mancini

This week was one for the record books. The market - being bombarded nonstop by Tariff headlines - put in the most volatile week since the first week of August 2024 at least and in my personal opinion its been the most volatile week since Covid. Not only were we 9 of the last 11 days red heading into today, but every day this week ES saw at least one 100+ point move and in the case of Tuesday and Wednesday, multiple bi-directional 100 point moves.
After 9 of last 11 Days Red, SPX Arrives At A Major Inflection Point. Can It Bounce? March 7 plan

Mar 6, 2025 | tradecompanion.substack.com | Adam Mancini

My newsletter yesterday was entitled: “Rare Green Day For SPX, But Will It Get Sold Like The Others?”. The answer, was yes. As discussed at length, this week has been the most volatile and complex since the first week of August 2024, with 100 point bi-directional moves being the norm daily. This action is driven by clear external causes (Tariff Headlines) but the technicals as always gave us the broad structure that those Tariff headlines would bounce price around in.
8 Of The Last 9 days Red For SPX. More Coming? March 5 Plan

Mar 4, 2025 | tradecompanion.substack.com | Adam Mancini

This week has been a masterclass for day traders with record volatility (and today was certainly the most volatile day at least since August 2024) and been mostly centered around one level/zone in ES: 5858 and 5875. We began the engagement of this level last Friday, and ES was in an unusual spot heading into last Friday: It had sold off for 6 days in a row, for the first time since April 2024.
Is SPX Ready To Make/Sustain All Time Highs? Feb 17th and 18th Plan

Feb 14, 2025 | tradecompanion.substack.com | Adam Mancini

As I’ve discussed everyday all, this week has been a carbon copy of the last two weeks, even down to the exact times that setups triggered. As readers know, I largely trade 1 setup: The Failed Breakdown. Failed Breakdowns are the footprint of institutional accumulation. They tell us a large institution has just entered a position so we can follow.
Is SPX Ready To Leave Its 3 Week Range? Feb 14 Plan

Feb 13, 2025 | tradecompanion.substack.com | Adam Mancini

As I discussed all week, the last three weeks have been carbon copies of one another, right down to the timing of when we got particular setups. Each week started with a gap down on the Sunday futures open, followed by a deep flush. Remember here that markets trap by their nature and these traps occur via my primary setup type.
SPX Has Coiled For 3 Weeks. A Trend Leg Is Coming. Feb 13 Plan

Feb 12, 2025 | tradecompanion.substack.com | Adam Mancini

As discussed in my last newsletter, ES has spent the last three weeks caught in a time warp: Each of the last 3 three weeks began, progressed, and are on track to end the same way. All three started with a gap down on Sunday, due to headlines over the week (usually, Tariffs). Then, shortly after the Sunday open each week, ES did what it almost always does after a deep, headline driven collapse: Put in my core setup, the Failed Breakdown. This triggered us long each week, including this Sunday.
CPI Tomorrow: Volatility Incoming For SPX. Can Bulls Keep The Run Going? Feb 12 Plan

Feb 11, 2025 | tradecompanion.substack.com | Adam Mancini

As I discussed yesterday, the last three weeks ES has been stuck in a time warp, following the exact same cycle: ES opens Sunday with a gap down due to weekend headlines (two weeks ago it was due to Deepseek AI, last week it was due to Tariffs, this week it was due to Tariffs). As we know, most deep, headline driven sells in ES result in my core setup, the Failed Breakdown to trigger long. For the last three weeks in a row, this occurred on Sunday/Monday.