Canadian Mortgage Trends

CMT was established in 2006 with two main goals: First, to ensure that Canada’s mortgage professionals stay updated on significant industry news and regulatory updates, enabling them to better assist their clients. Second, to equip Canadians with the knowledge and resources they need to make informed mortgage choices.

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Alternative lending brokers seen as 'AI-proof,' experts say

1 day ago | canadianmortgagetrends.com | Steve Huebl

During a panel discussion at the 2025 Expo hosted by the Canadian Alternative Mortgage Lenders Association (CAMLA), industry experts agreed brokers specializing in alternative and private lending have an advantage as automation reshapes the broader financial sector. They highlighted the nuanced, relationship-driven nature of alternative lending as something technology can’t fully replace.
U.S. inflation cools in April, fuelling expectations of Fed easing later this year

3 days ago | canadianmortgagetrends.com | Brett Surbey

Annual inflation slowed to 2.3%, down from 2.4% in March, marking the smallest year-over-year gain since February 2021, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Monthly price growth remained modest, with headline and core inflation each rising 0.2%—slightly below economists’ expectations. The CPI increase was driven mainly by higher shelter costs (+0.3%) and energy prices (+0.7%), partially offset by a 0.4% decline in the food at home index.
Rising unemployment rate and weak job gains point to June rate cut

1 week ago | canadianmortgagetrends.com | Brett Surbey

Employment rose by just 7,400 in April, according to StatCan’s latest report, while the unemployment rate climbed 0.2 percentage points to 6.9%. The percentage of unemployed Canadians reached its highest level since November 2024 (and the highest since January 2017, excluding the pandemic years). The slight increase was generally in line with economists’ expectations, though some forecasts varied.
U.S. job growth defies expectations again, but tariff risks lurk

2 weeks ago | canadianmortgagetrends.com | Brett Surbey

The Bureau of Labor Statistics today reported a gain of 177,000 nonfarm payroll positions for the month of April, surpassing expectations and reflecting strength across several sectors. This marks the second straight month of better-than-expected job growth, following March’s gain of 228,000 positions. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, remaining within a narrow range of 4.0% to 4.2% since May 2024, according to the BLS.
First National sees early boost from mortgage rule changes, but profits lag

2 weeks ago | canadianmortgagetrends.com | Steve Huebl

But that surge has yet to meaningfully flow through to the bottom line, as Canada’s largest non-bank mortgage lender saw its revenue growth tempered by narrower margins, lower servicing income, and a heavier expense load.
Trade uncertainty was key reason behind Bank of Canada’s April rate hold

2 weeks ago | canadianmortgagetrends.com | Steve Huebl

According to the Bank’s latest Summary of Governing Council Deliberations, it was the sheer unpredictability of U.S. trade policy—and how it might ripple through the Canadian economy—that led policymakers to stay on the sidelines. With major tariffs announced by the U.S. earlier this month and more possibly on the way, the Bank said it simply couldn’t forecast with confidence how growth or inflation might evolve. Instead, they chose to pause and gather more information.
Canada’s GDP contracts in February, with more headwinds ahead

2 weeks ago | canadianmortgagetrends.com | Brett Surbey

Canada’s real GDP fell 0.2% in February, down from a 0.4% gain in January and coming in slightly below economists’ expectations. Twelve of the 20 industry sectors posted declines in February, according to Statistics Canada. In a reversal from January, goods-producing industries led the contraction with a 0.6% drop, driven largely by mining, quarrying, oil and gas extraction, and construction.
Scotiabank now sees three Bank of Canada rate cuts in 2026

2 weeks ago | canadianmortgagetrends.com | Steve Huebl

12:44 PM• Mortgage Industry News • Views: 2 Written by The updated outlook marks a departure from Scotiabank’s long-standing view that the BoC had already reached its terminal rate and would remain on hold at 2.75% throughout its forecast horizon.
Markets see two more Bank of Canada rate cuts as economy slows, survey shows

2 weeks ago | canadianmortgagetrends.com | Steve Huebl

Respondents see the BoC’s policy rate falling from 2.75% currently to 2.25% by the end of 2025, suggesting two additional 25-basis-point cuts in the months ahead. The median forecast calls for the first cut to come by June, with rates drifting lower in the second half of the year. The market’s median call for two rate cuts by year-end broadly matches forecasts from RBC, CIBC, and TD, which all see the Bank of Canada lowering its policy rate to 2.25% by the end of the year.
Dip in February retail sales strengthens case for another BoC rate cut

3 weeks ago | canadianmortgagetrends.com | Steve Huebl

Retail sales fell 0.4% to $69.3 billion in February, dragged down by a sharp drop at auto dealers and continued weakness in housing-related categories. It’s the second straight monthly drop and caps off a sluggish first quarter for Canadian consumers. The biggest hit came from motor vehicle and parts dealers, where sales tumbled 2.6%. All four store types in the category were down, with new car dealers posting a 3.0% drop.