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USD/JPY slips to multi-month lows, AUD/USD tests major resistance

1 week ago | forex.com | David Scutt |Matt Simpson

USD/JPY closes below 142.00 despite strong U.S. retail sales AUD/USD near key resistance ahead of Aussie jobs report ECB guidance on euro strength may rattle FX markets Thin liquidity heightens risk of sharp moves across majorsSummary USD/JPY and AUD/USD sit at key levels on the charts heading into what is traditionally a period of poor market liquidity ahead of Easter.
Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Drops as BoC Holds Interest Rate

1 week ago | forex.com | David Song |Matt Simpson |David Scutt |Matt Weller CFA

Canadian Dollar Outlook: USD/CADUSD/CAD drops towards the monthly low (1.3829) as the Bank of Canada (BoC) keeps its benchmark interest rate at 2.75%, and the exchange rate stage further attempts to test the to test the November low (1.3821) as struggles to retain the advance from the start of the week.
EUR/USD Bulls Build Support Bounce into the ECB Rate Decision

1 week ago | forex.com | James Stanley |David Song |Fawad Razaqzada

Tomorrow brings a rate decision from the European Central Bank with the wide expectation for a 25 bp cut. Despite that expectation EUR/USD has been breaking out over the past two months, setting a fresh three-year high just last Friday. The weekly EUR/USD chart is overbought and sellers had an open door to run a pullback at the start of this week – but they could not get below the 1.1275 Fibonacci level and bulls have since used that price as a springboard from higher-low support.
US Dollar Forecast: USD/CHF Weakness Keeps RSI in Oversold Territory

1 week ago | forex.com | David Song |David Scutt |Matt Simpson

US Dollar Outlook: USD/CHFUSD/CHF gives back the advance from earlier this week to keep the Relative Strength Index (RSI) in oversold territory, but the exchange rate may consolidate over the remainder of the week as it appears to be defending the monthly low (0.8100). Keep in mind, USD/CHF snapped a long-term range as it pushed below the 2023 low (0.8333) during the previous week, and the weakness in the exchange rate may persist as long as the RSI holds below 30.
US Dollar Oversold Bounce from Fibo Support - Powell, ECB on Deck

1 week ago | forex.com | James Stanley |Fawad Razaqzada |Matt Simpson |David Scutt

U.S. Dollar bulls have had an open door to run a pullback from oversold conditions but so far this week, they’ve failed to push through short-term resistance levels. The larger drivers remain with Chair Powell’s speech later today and then the European Central Bank rate decision tomorrow, ahead of the Good Friday holiday and the long weekend in the United States. Last week saw the US Dollar go oversold on the weekly chart for only the second time in the past seven years.
GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CAD Price Action Setups: 16 April 2025

1 week ago | forex.com | Matt Simpson |David Scutt

View related analysis: Tentative Signs of a US Dollar Rebound Ahead of Powell speech US Dollar Index, USD/CAD, AUD/CAD Analysis EUR/USD, AUD/USD, S&P 500 Analysis: COT Report AUD/USD Stages a V-Bottom Recovery Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) Technical AnalysisThe V-bottom on the Australian dollar’s daily chart is undeniably impressive—though perhaps not quite as striking as the one seen on the New Zealand dollar (NZD/USD).
USD/JPY forecast undermined by risk aversion

1 week ago | forex.com | Fawad Razaqzada |David Song |David Scutt

The USD/JPY eased lower as US stock markets wobbled. Technology sector took a hit thanks to sharp falls in Nvidia, AMD and ASML. While trade tensions flared up again, sentiment was not significantly bearish thanks to news, courtesy of Bloomberg, that China may be open to fresh talks — provided President Trump reins in his more hawkish aides and shows respect. It remains to be seen whether talks between the two sides will start soon and whether a trade agreement will be struck.
U.S. Exceptionalism Not Done Yet? Big Retail Print Could Wreck Bearish Dollar Bets

1 week ago | forex.com | David Scutt |Matt Simpson

Retail sales seen rising 1.3% on auto-related strength Control group may lift 0.6%, boosting GDP nowcasts USD/CAD, USD/CHF show reversal signals ahead of key events Powell unlikely to shift tone, but price action couldSummary The end of U.S. economic exceptionalism seems to be almost uniformly expected, creating a dangerous scenario for markets that have run hard in anticipation should new information arrive that questions the prevailing narrative.
AUD/USD, NZD/USD: Antipodeans in orbit as China proxies pop

1 week ago | forex.com | David Scutt |Matt Simpson

Kiwi at fresh YTD highs after clearing major resistance Aussie nearing breakout, uptrend capping for now Strong link to China proxies: HSI, copper, silver Sentiment towards U.S. trade policy remains key driverSummaryIt’s been another big session of buying across the antipodean currencies in Asia, continuing the pattern seen in recent days. The Kiwi continues to outperform, sending NZD/USD to fresh YTD highs. The Aussie is not far behind, sitting just beneath key resistance.
Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Surges After CPI Ahead of BOC

1 week ago | forex.com | Matt Weller CFA |Matt Simpson |David Song |David Scutt

Canadian Dollar and Bank of Canada Key Points Canadian CPI came in well below expectations this morning at 2.3% y/y in March. The data slightly favors a BOC hold this week in my view, though a proactive 25bps rate cut cannot be ruled out. There is some early evidence that USD/CAD may be carving out a near-term bottom heading into tomorrow’s BOC meeting.