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Pandemic-Era Demand Squeezed Housing Inventories - San Francisco Fed

Jan 8, 2025 | frbsf.org | Rachel Lang

The housing market experienced historically low levels of inventory along with rapid price growth in the two years following the onset of the pandemic. Analysis of national and county-level housing data suggests this price surge was fueled by heightened demand rather than low supply. The inflow of new listings remained at pre-pandemic levels, but the outflow due to sales was unusually high, which fed into the low inventory. By mid-2022, rising mortgage rates moderated demand, allowing inventory levels to return to pre-pandemic trends.
Job Vacancies and Firms’ Labor Market Perceptions - San Francisco Fed

Oct 7, 2024 | frbsf.org

During the post-pandemic period, the vacancy-unemployment ratio was at historically high levels, but the strength of overall labor demand was unclear. Analysis using data from the National Federation of Independent Business on firms’ perceptions of the labor market confirms that during that time firms perceived the labor market as being unusually tight relative to historical norms. As of June-August 2024, however, both firms’ perceptions and measures of labor market tightness had returned to their 2019 levels.
When is Rent Inflation Coming Down?

Sep 3, 2024 | frbsf.org | Rachel Lang

Different leading indicators of housing inflation, suggest it will continue to decline toward more traditional levels over the next year.
Wildfires and Real Estate Values in California - San Francisco Fed

Aug 26, 2024 | frbsf.org | Rachel Lang

Wildfires have been a concern in California for decades. The intensity of these events has increased recently, with particularly large and destructive fire seasons between 2018 and 2021. Analysis shows that distance from high fire-risk zones had little impact on residential housing values in the past. However, that has changed since the late 2010s, coinciding with more extensive fire damage to land and structures across the state. Insurance availability appears to help little in preserving home values in areas that are considered more at risk.
More than Words: Twitter Chatter and Financial Market Sentiment - San Francisco Fed

Jul 23, 2024 | frbsf.org | Rachel Lang

We build a new measure of credit and financial market sentiment using Natural Language Processing on Twitter data. We find that the Twitter Financial
Small Businesses at the Frontier of the Generative AI Economy - San Francisco Fed

Jul 5, 2024 | frbsf.org

How is the spread of generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) tools affecting small businesses? Read more about the EERN roundtable with leaders of small-scale enterprises currently integrating GenAI technologies.
Impact of U.S. Labor Productivity Losses from Extreme Heat - San Francisco Fed

May 28, 2024 | frbsf.org | Rachel Lang

Extreme heat decreases labor productivity in sectors like construction, where much work occurs outdoors. Because construction is an important component of investment, lost productivity today will slow how much capital is built up for future use and thus can have long-lasting impacts on overall economic outcomes. Combining estimates of lost labor productivity due to extreme heat with a model of economic growth suggests that, by the year 2200, extreme heat will reduce the U.S. capital stock by 5.4% and annual consumption by 1.8%.
Are Markups Driving the Ups and Downs of Inflation? - San Francisco Fed

May 13, 2024 | frbsf.org | Rachel Lang

How much impact have price markups for goods and services had on the recent surge and the subsequent decline of inflation? Since 2021, markups have risen substantially in a few industries such as motor vehicles and petroleum. However, aggregate markups—which are more relevant for overall inflation—have generally remained flat, in line with previous economic recoveries over the past three decades. These patterns suggest that markup fluctuations have not been a main driver of the ups and downs of inflation during the post-pandemic recovery.
Pandemic Savings Are Gone: What’s Next for U.S. Consumers? - San Francisco Fed

May 3, 2024 | frbsf.org | Rachel Lang

U.S. household savings rose and fell at unprecedented rates following the onset of the pandemic recession. Updated estimates suggest that these excess savings have been fully spent. However, consumer spending shows no signs of losing steam, raising questions about its future path.
Home Truths: Changing the Conversation on Housing - San Francisco Fed

Mar 6, 2024 | frbsf.org | Rachel Lang

2024 National Interagency Community Reinvestment Conference Portland, OR