Master Investor

Aug 2, 2024 | masterinvestor.co.uk | Victor Hill

The Cupboard Is EmptyQuelle surprise! Chancellor Rachel Reeves is complaining that the Tories left the pantry bare and the cupboards empty. The mice (for which read the consultants) are nibbling at the crumbs. There is no more money. (Where have we heard that before?). The British state faces an unfunded shortfall between expected tax revenues and expenditure some £22 billion bigger than the one the Tories had anticipated. There is a fiscal black hole.

Jul 26, 2024 | masterinvestor.co.uk | Victor Hill

A Twist In The PlotJuly 2024 has been the most tumultuous month in American politics of my lifetime. The US presidential election was to have been Trump versus Biden and Trump looked like a slam dunk. Now it will be Donald Trump versus Kamala Harris, and there is all to play for. Why did President Joe Biden announce that he would not seek a second presidential term last Sunday (21 July) and would “pass the torch” (in his own words) to his Vice President? Several factors coincided.

Jul 19, 2024 | masterinvestor.co.uk | Victor Hill

Pomp And CircumstanceIn most countries the announcement of the legislative programme of a new government takes place at a press conference or is undertaken by a man in a suit at a rostrum in the national parliament. In Britain, in contrast, it involves horse-drawn carriages, the Household Cavalry, trumpets, page boys, lords in ermine and a monarch, wearing his heavy crown, intoning words written by his ministers with a faint air of incomprehension.

Jul 5, 2024 | masterinvestor.co.uk | Victor Hill

The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars/ But in ourselves, that we are underlings. Julius Caesar (1599), Act 1, Scene 2, by William Shakespeare (1564-1616)Chronicle Of A Death ForetoldA personal reflection. On 22 May, I was holed up in a charming hotel in South Devon, digesting the news that one of my oldest friends was very seriously ill.

Jun 28, 2024 | masterinvestor.co.uk | Victor Hill

Risk aversion and its consequencesThe financial crisis of 2008-09 was a watershed. Before the collapse of Lehman Brothers, which was very nearly followed by the collapse of the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), the banks were growing their balance sheet like crazy. They were keen to invest in structured finance as exemplified by exotic instruments such as collateralised mortgage obligations (CMOs). That all ended in tears.