Real Investment Advice

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Stock Market Performance As Summer Arrives

3 weeks ago | realinvestmentadvice.com | Lance Roberts

Stock Market Performance As Summer Arrives How We Are Trading It Research Report – How Does Consumer Spending Impact Earnings YouTube – Before The Bell Market Statistics Stock Screens Portfolio Trades This Week Last week, we discussed the successful test of the 200-DMA. “Most notably, this past week was the successful test of the 200-DMA.
Does Consumer Spending Drive Earnings Growth?

3 weeks ago | realinvestmentadvice.com | Lance Roberts

It would seem evident that most investors would understand that consumer spending drives economic growth, ultimately creating corporate earnings growth. Yet, despite this somewhat tautological statement, Wall Street appears to ignore this simple reality when forecasting forward earnings. As discussed recently, S&P Global’s current estimates show earnings are growing far above the long-term exponential growth trend from 1936.
The Narratives Change. Markets Don't.

4 weeks ago | realinvestmentadvice.com | Lance Roberts

The Narratives Change. Markets Don’t. How We Are Trading It Research Report – Ray Dalio & The Coming Financial Crisis YouTube – Before The Bell Market Statistics Stock Screens Portfolio Trades This Week Last week, we discussed how this seems to be an “unstoppable” bull market. However, that doesn’t mean markets won’t pause before attempting to move higher. As we noted last week, the consolidation was expected.
An Unstoppable Bull Market?

1 month ago | realinvestmentadvice.com | Lance Roberts

An Unstoppable Bull Market How We Are Trading It Research Report – How To Solve The “Anchoring” Problem YouTube – Before The Bell Market Statistics Stock Screens Portfolio Trades This Week Last week, we discussed how the rally had repaired much of the previous damage following the correction. As we noted: “This past week, the market continued its advance. There is little reason to be bearish with key overhead resistance levels broken.
Moody's Debt Downgrade - Does It Matter?

1 month ago | realinvestmentadvice.com | Lance Roberts

This morning, markets are reacting to Moody’s rating downgrade of U.S. debt. For those promoting egregious amounts of “bear porn,” this is nirvana for fear-mongering headlines that gain clicks and views. However, as investors, we need to step back and examine the history of previous debt downgrades and their outcomes for both the stock and bond markets. Let’s start with what the Moody’s rating agency stated about its rating change.
Recession Probabilities Decline

1 month ago | realinvestmentadvice.com | Lance Roberts

Recession Probabilities Decline How We Are Trading It Research Report – Do Stock Buybacks Move The Market? YouTube – Before The Bell Market Statistics Stock Screens Portfolio Trades This Week Last week, we discussed how the rally had repaired much of the previous damage following “Liberation Day.” However, we also made competing cases for the bulls and bears on the market’s next move. “It is always difficult to say whether this is a ‘bear market’ rally while you are in the midst of it.
Earnings Revision Shows Sharp Decline

1 month ago | realinvestmentadvice.com | Lance Roberts

Negative Earnings Revision Shows Sharp Decline How We Are Trading It Research Report – Employment Data Confirms Economy Is Slowing YouTube – Before The Bell Market Statistics Stock Screens Portfolio Trades This Week Last week, we discussed that while the market improved sharply, the underlying economic data continues to decline steadily. However, given that the data was not recessionary, the market rallied and took out some key resistance levels.
Economic Decline Gains Momentum

1 month ago | realinvestmentadvice.com | Lance Roberts

Economic Decline Gains Momentum How We Are Trading It Research Report – Investing Awards You Never Receive YouTube – Before The Bell Market Statistics Stock Screens Portfolio Trades This Week Last week, we discussed that the market backdrop improved markedly following commentary from the White House that eased concerns about tariffs. To wit: “The market rallied above the 20-DMA this past week as investors found some “silver linings” to the ongoing tariff dispute.
The Awards You Never Get When Investing

1 month ago | realinvestmentadvice.com | Lance Roberts

In investing, success is often judged by numbers—returns on investment, percentage gains, and the ability to outperform benchmarks like the S&P 500. However, some investors frequently pursue a peculiar set of “awards” without realizing the pitfalls they embody. These unspoken goals, while tempting, rarely lead to sustainable investment success. If there were awards for some of these common but ill-advised behaviors, they would likely cause more harm than good.
Correction Continues - The Value Of Risk Management

2 months ago | realinvestmentadvice.com | Lance Roberts

Despite the recent rally, the correction continues. While wanting to “buy the dip” is tempting, there has been enough technical damage to warrant remaining cautious in the near term. As we have discussed, managing risk requires discipline and the emotional ability to navigate more volatile markets until a more straightforward path for risk-taking emerges.