The Greater Fool

1 day ago | greaterfool.ca | Garth Turner

Here we go again. Knowing they were about to get the brown end of the electoral stick, previous Con leaders Andrew Scheer and Erin O’Toole tried to scare people by saying Libs had plans to tax home equity. They lost. No tax happened. None had been proposed. But that’s not stopped the river of dread from flowing again. Days ago, speaking to a roomful of Toronto wrinklies, leader Pierre Poilievre pulled it out once more. The Carney guys, he said, will have no option but to start Hoovering houses.

2 days ago | greaterfool.ca | Garth Turner

Six days to vote and the last major party is releasing its plan. Tax cuts, spending cuts, frugality, belt-tightening and less is more. In another time, this makes sense. But not this time. At least, not if you want to get elected. Canadians have lost confidence in much around them. Just look at the pace of real estate sales. In the GTA, for example, they’re 40% below the five-year average and half of the ten-year norm. About 10,000 homes should sell in an April.

3 days ago | greaterfool.ca | Garth Turner

He wouldn’t. Would he? As stock markets flirt with a bear, bonds are sold off, the US dollar fades and a global trade war gathers… is Donald Trump on the cusp of nuking the Fed? As we reminded you last week, this is the ‘nightmare scenario’ analysts have been theorizing. But theory no longer. If the American president moves to take over and politicize monetary policy – as Pierre Poilievre has suggested in Canada – Mr. Market could go postal.

4 days ago | greaterfool.ca | Garth Turner

Eight more sleeps ’til the ruler is chosen. Everywhere comes word advance polls are jammed. What does that mean? Conventional wisdom is that people are motivated to vote – and do so as soon as possible – when they crave change. So those long lines should be good for the Cons, after three terms of the other dudes. But things are not conventional these days. This sis more an election about America than Canada.

6 days ago | greaterfool.ca | Garth Turner

Even in Calgary house sales have dropped 19% and listings increased 100%. Toronto and Vancouver are a hot mess. Prices across Canada have softened. But they have not dropped, plunged, sunk or mellowed. A few sellers have surrendered. Most are hanging tough. Scores have withdrawn their properties. In one GTA market the DOM for $2 million+ homes – which used to sell in weeks – is approaching two years. As you heard in the debate last night, nobody has a valid plan to fix this. The reason’s simple.