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TLP Weekend Edition (May 31-June 1, 2025)

1 week ago | liberalpatriot.com | John Halpin |Ruy Teixeira |Michael Baharaeen

📖 “American Realignment,” by Patrick Ruffini. In The Atlantic, TLP friend Patrick Ruffini examines the evidence about whether or not there is a “realignment” going on in American politics. Ruffini believes there is:Today, machine politics are not held in high esteem. But they did have a way of finding overlooked voting blocs and putting them under protection.
Hispanic Moderates’ Big Swing Right

1 week ago | liberalpatriot.com | Ruy Teixeira

The release of the new data and report from Catalist has underscored the extent of Hispanic defection from the Democrats over the last two presidential cycles. We’ve seen massive drops in Democratic support from pretty much every subgroup of Hispanics, albeit with some variation: working-class Hispanics more than the college-educated, women (interestingly) more than men, younger Hispanics more than older ones, and urban residents more than those in the suburbs.
Do Democrats Know How to Win Back Men?

1 week ago | liberalpatriot.com | Michael Baharaeen

One of the top quandaries for the Democratic Party following the 2024 election is how to bounce back with male voters. Some of the largest rightward shifts last year came from men—specifically, young and minority men. New data from the Democratic firm Catalist showed that while the Democratic vote share among men overall swung right by five points compared to 2020, the shift was larger among Asian (six points), black (eight points), and Hispanic (twelve points) men.
TLP Weekend Edition (May 24-25, 2025)

2 weeks ago | liberalpatriot.com | Ruy Teixeira |Michael Baharaeen |John Halpin

ūüó£ÔłŹ ‚ÄúPresident Franklin D. Roosevelt‚Äôs Memorial Day Address at Gettysburg,‚ÄĚ delivered on May 30, 1934. FDR commemorated Memorial Day (before it was changed by Congress to the last Monday in May) with a speech at the Gettysburg battlefields to remind Americans that our nation had survived the Civil War and would hopefully do the same with the Great Depression.
The Futility of Democratic Strategy

2 weeks ago | liberalpatriot.com | Ruy Teixeira

Today I’m joined by Zaid Jilani, a fellow at New America, proprietor of the excellent Substack newsletter, The American Saga, and one of our sharpest observers of contemporary politics and culture. Zaid and I discuss the puzzle of Democrats’ obsessive use of twenty-dollar words like “oligarchy” and their stout refusal to speak language that normal Americans understand.
The Decline of the Democratic Coalition, 2012-2024

2 weeks ago | liberalpatriot.com | Ruy Teixeira

Right after the 2024 election, I wrote the following based on the limited data that were available at the time:At one point in the initial rollout of Harris’s campaign, there was much happy (joyful?) talk of getting the band back together—the return of the mighty Obama coalition. The “rising American electorate” would have its revenge on Trump, the Republicans, and their retrograde supporters from declining demographics. That’s not exactly how it worked out.
Understanding America Across 15 Types of Communities (Part One)

2 weeks ago | liberalpatriot.com | Michael Baharaeen

One of the most innovative and insightful organizations I’ve discovered in the past few years is the American Communities Project. For those unfamiliar with ACP, its purpose is to better understand the immense diversity of the United States by breaking down its 3,144 counties into 15 “community types.” By collecting a treasure trove of demographic, economic, public opinion, and voting data, ACP gives Americans a deeper look at their country and fellow citizens.
TLP Weekend Edition (May 17-18, 2025)

3 weeks ago | liberalpatriot.com | John Halpin |Ruy Teixeira

📖 “Ten Years and a Hundred Days of Trump,” by David Bromwich. In Compact, Bromwich offers a cogent big picture look at the rise of Donald Trump, his governing successes and screw ups, and how his Democratic opponents have failed to mount a compelling alternative to his brand of chaotic politics. The 49.8 percent plurality that gave Trump his second term did so from a mood of rational resentment.
The Progressive Moment Is *Still* Over

3 weeks ago | liberalpatriot.com | Ruy Teixeira

In late October of last year, I published a piece called “The Progressive Moment Is Over.” I observed:It wasn’t so long ago progressives were riding high. They had a moment; they really did. Their radical views set the agenda and tone for the Democratic Party and, especially in cultural areas, were hegemonic in the nation’s discourse.
Democrats Can’t Rely on Trump’s Struggles

3 weeks ago | liberalpatriot.com | Michael Baharaeen

It’s no secret that Donald Trump’s political fortunes have taken a dip. After starting his second term with a strong net approval of +11.6 points, it took less than 100 days to fall into net negative territory. Some recent surveys even suggested that his approval rating had hit the lowest 100-day mark of any president in the polling era. Trump’s struggles have engendered some schadenfreude in his critics, including the Democrats.