TheHungarianContrarian

1 week ago | spencerjakab.substack.com | Spencer Jakab

Back when I was in elementary school in the late 1970s, what my friends and I wanted to be when we grew up came up from time-to-time. The number one answer by far was “photographer for Playboy,” followed by drummer for KISS. A few degenerates wanted to be lawyers. Now that I’m middle-aged, I understand that the best job in the world is one that provides a decent living without feeling like work—one you’d still show up to do tomorrow if you won the lottery.

1 month ago | spencerjakab.substack.com | Spencer Jakab

By now you’ve realized that the early stages of the trade war have turned your 401(k) into a 301(k) and are wondering how it’ll all play out. It’s at times like these that I get questions from long-dormant Facebook contacts, my mom’s childhood friends, or neighbors who spot me out for a walk. “So, what do you think about the stock market?”Thanks for reading TheHungarianContrarian! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

2 months ago | spencerjakab.substack.com | Spencer Jakab

F. Scott Fitzgerald’s famous (and probably apocryphal) comment to Ernest Hemingway drew a truly Hemingwayesque response: “Yes, they have more money.”Most of us don’t share Hemingway’s healthy attitude. Rich people’s castles, cars, yachts, divorces and rotten kids are endlessly interesting. If you haven’t been tempted to look up the home of some wealthy acquaintance on Zillow then you’re a better person than me.

Feb 11, 2025 | spencerjakab.substack.com | Spencer Jakab

Dear readers and casual browsers of The Hungarian Contrarian,Thanks for reading TheHungarianContrarian! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. As I hope you know, I write this newsletter for fun. I really do appreciate the handful of you who have pledged an annual subscription for it through Substack–a feature I’m not sure how to turn off–but I have no plans to take you up on it while I’m gainfully employed.

Feb 9, 2025 | spencerjakab.substack.com | Spencer Jakab

“Don’t fight the Fed” is one of the oldest and best-known nuggets of investing wisdom out there, but do people really understand it? I have my doubts. Coined more than 50 years ago by the late, great Martin Zweig, who warned investors to be cautious ahead of the October 1987 stock market crash, it basically means that, when the world’s most powerful central bank puts its finger on the scale, you would be wise to be on the same side. Buy when policy is loose, be cautious when it is restrictive.