therandomwalk.co

Articles

[From the Archive] What's really going on in the labor markets

6 days ago | therandomwalk.co | Moses Sternstein

Random Walk is off for Shavuot today and tomorrow, so we’re releasing a still-relevant post from the archives. This post originally aired ~1 year ago, May 6, 2024:labor market data was bad in the good way (wut?)really, nothing has changed and everything is expected, iykykimmigration matters, a lot . . . but it may be reaching a saturation point👉👉👉Reminder to sign up for the Weekly Recap only, if daily emails is too much. Find me on twitter, for more fun.
Housing Shortage has been cancelled

1 week ago | therandomwalk.co | Moses Sternstein

Publishing note:Random Walk is going to experiment with a different publishing cadence over the next few weeks (more details forthcoming). I will endeavor to trade some frequency for depth, at least some of the time. sellers outnumber buyers, by a lotprice cuts galoreaffordability-shortage-lock-in-crisis is OUT; actually, it’s the interest rates is IN👉👉👉Reminder to sign up for the Weekly Recap only, if daily emails is too much. Find me on twitter, for more fun.
Donna Summers Phase (reprise)

1 week ago | therandomwalk.co | Moses Sternstein

Publishing note:Random Walk is going to experiment with a different publishing cadence over the next few weeks (more details forthcoming). I will endeavor to trade some frequency for depth, at least some of the time. More on the Donna Summers Phase of Cautious Consumerism—who feels the burn? Dog day afternoonRVs are so back, and slow summer travel👉👉👉Reminder to sign up for the Weekly Recap only, if daily emails is too much. Find me on twitter, for more fun.
7 AI-related charts

1 week ago | therandomwalk.co | Moses Sternstein

Publishing note:Random Walk is going to experiment with a different publishing cadence over the next few weeks (more details forthcoming). I will endeavor to trade some frequency for depth, at least some of the time. GPU rental indexAI budgets increasingNo, AI is (probably) not taking your job. It might make your job, though. šššReminder to sign up for the Weekly Recap only, if daily emails is too much. Find me on twitter, for more fun.
A tale of two pandemic cycles

1 week ago | therandomwalk.co | Moses Sternstein

Publishing note:Random Walk is going to experiment with a different publishing cadence over the next few weeks (more details forthcoming). I will endeavor to trade some frequency for depth, at least some of the time. JPM weighs-in on what Random Walk’s been saying for a while: it’s Donna Summers’ time to shineit was the best of times, it was the ‘roughly flat’ timestiming is everything, when it comes to income growth, especially for the post-GFCers in their primewhat if it’s ZIRP all the way down?
Is the wealth channel the bagholder?

2 weeks ago | therandomwalk.co | Moses Sternstein

Publishing note:Random Walk is going to experiment with a different publishing cadence over the next few weeks (more details forthcoming). I will endeavor to trade some frequency for depth, at least some of the time.
Analysts are almost always too optimistic about earnings

2 weeks ago | therandomwalk.co | Moses Sternstein

Publishing note:Random Walk is going to experiment with a different publishing cadence over the next few weeks (more details forthcoming). I will endeavor to trade some frequency for depth, at least some of the time. A history of downward revisionsthree exceptions to the ruleðŸ‘‰ðŸ‘‰ðŸ‘‰Reminder to sign up for the Weekly Recap only, if daily emails is too much. Find me on twitter, for more fun. Short post today.
AI is not taking white collar jobs

2 weeks ago | therandomwalk.co | Moses Sternstein

Publishing note:Random Walk is going to experiment with a different publishing cadence over the next few weeks (more details forthcoming). I will endeavor to trade some frequency for depth, at least some of the time. AI is not taking white collar jobs, but white collar jobs are indeed still stagnantif AI startups are getting all the funding, and startup hiring is flat, does that mean AI is killing jobs or making them?
Sohn 2025

2 weeks ago | therandomwalk.co | Moses Sternstein

Publishing note:Random Walk is going to experiment with a different publishing cadence over the next few weeks (more details forthcoming). I will endeavor to trade some frequency for depth, at least some of the time. 👉👉👉Reminder to sign up for the Weekly Recap only, if daily emails is too much. Find me on twitter, for more fun. Another Sohn Conference in the bag, and it was a blast. My notes are below, and although I didn’t catch everything or everyone, I caught a bunch.
Secondaries will not save VC (reprise)

2 weeks ago | therandomwalk.co | Moses Sternstein

Publishing note:Random Walk is going to experiment with a different publishing cadence over the next few weeks (more details forthcoming). I will endeavor to trade some frequency for depth, at least some of the time. Random Walk has a few more posts on the state of the exit market lined-up (as well as Sohn recaps, and some White Collar Stagnation chartapaloozas). For now, briefly revisiting the VC secondary sich.