TKer

When you come across a frightening headline about the stock market dropping 5% from its peak this year, TKer will clarify that it's not as alarming as it seems, since the market typically experiences an average drop of 14% during the year. TKer will highlight that new home sales are on the rise, but it’s important to note that this increase is mainly due to homes that have not yet started construction. While many may suggest that stricter monetary policies are bad for the market, TKer will point out that historically, stock prices tend to rise after the Federal Reserve's initial rate hike.

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Stocks usually look past geopolitical events, but they shouldn't be ignored π"£

1 week ago | tker.co | Sam Ro

Tensions are high in the Middle East following Israelβs attack on Iran last Friday. From a markets perspective, an extended conflict or escalation risks more market volatility while threatening economic activity. βDevelopments in Israel/Iran since late last week have come at a complicated time for the U.S. equity market,β RBCβs Lori Calvasina wrote on Sunday.
This year's historic stock market swing brings attention to an unsettling trend π’

2 weeks ago | tker.co | Sam Ro

The stock market has experienced some stomach-churning volatility this year, with the S&P 500 plummeting 18.9% from its February 19 closing high of 6,144.15 to its April 8 closing low of 4,982.77. The market has since recovered almost all of those losses, with the S&P closing at 6,022.24 on Wednesday. Volatility, as measured by the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), made a historic swing during this period.
On TACO trades, stock market vigilantes, Trump puts ... whatever you wanna call it ๐ฎ

3 weeks ago | tker.co | Sam Ro

People have been talking about the โTACOโ trade, a concept coined by the Financial Timesโ Robert Armstrong. Short for โTrump Always Chickens Out,โ TACO explains how markets fall after President Trump announces unfavorable economic policies and then rally after he relents on those policies. The wording is cheeky. And unsurprisingly, it elicited an unfavorable response from Trump. But the basic concept isnโt new.
Why elevated interest rates aren't a big problem for the stock market π€¨

3 weeks ago | tker.co | Sam Ro

When interest rates rise, itβs tempting to jump to the conclusion that the stock market should suffer. After all, higher rates mean higher financing costs. This is bad because: 1) customers will have a harder time financing purchases, which is a headwind for sales, and 2) higher interest expenses are a negative for earnings. On a slightly wonkier note, higher interest rates cause the as the present value of future cash flows shrinks. That said, the full story is nuanced.
Identifying winning stocks is hard. Holding winning stocks is a nightmare. š«

3 weeks ago | tker.co | Sam Ro

š The stock market rallied last week, with the S&P 500 gaining 1.9% to close at 5,911.69. Itās now down3.8% from its February 19 closing high of 6,144.15 and up65.3%from its October 12, 2022 closing low of 3,577.03. For more on how the market moves, read: It's OK to have emotions ā just don't let them near your stock portfolioš-Weāve discussed exhaustively how difficult it is to pick stocks that outperform the market. But letās assume you were able to identify these winning stocks.
The simple explanation for why the stock market is holding up πͺ

1 month ago | tker.co | Sam Ro

Corporate America said the first quarter (Q1) was better than expected. And despite lingering policy uncertainty, they said the outlook for earnings isnβt obviously bad. Because earnings are the most important driver of stock prices, resilient earnings prospects are the simple reason the stock market has held up despite the murky business backdrop.
From studying religion to writing about the stock market ๐คท๐ปโโ๏ธ

1 month ago | tker.co | Sam Ro

Joe Fahmy is one of my favorite people to talk to. Not just about markets, but about everything. Fun fact: Joe and I both studied religion as undergrads in Boston, but on opposite sides of the Charles River. Joeโs an advisor with Zor Capital. If youโve ever seen him on TV or heard him on a podcast, you know he has a very clear, level-headed way of thinking about trading and investing.
It's not too early to talk about 2027 ποΈ

1 month ago | tker.co | Sam Ro

Weβre almost halfway through 2025. In about five months, Wall Street strategists will unveil their official outlooks for 2026. But as he is wont to do this time of year, Morgan Stanleyβs Michael Wilson is offering a sneak peak into his view on earnings per share (EPS) growth two years out.
Stock market targets get revised up weeks after getting cut 🤷🏻‍♂️

1 month ago | tker.co | Sam Ro

Two months ago, Goldman Sachs and Yardeni Research led Wall Street in slashing their year-end S&P 500 targets as the stock market tumbled. In the following weeks, RBC, Societe Generale, Oppenheimer, BofA, JPMorgan, BMO, Citi, CFRA, and Deutsche Bank all revised their targets lower. On Monday, Goldman and Yardeni revised their targets again — this time up — after the U.S. and China agreed to temporarily lower tariffs they imposed on each other as they negotiate a new trade deal.
'Past performance is' clearly 'no guarantee of future results' π

1 month ago | tker.co | Sam Ro

Itβs hard enough to construct and manage a stock portfolio in a way that beats the competition. Even if you are a fund manager who generated industry-leading returns in one year, history says itβs an almost insurmountable task to stay on top consistently in subsequent years. S&P Dow Jones Indices (SPDJI) just published their latest Persistence Scorecard, which tracks the performance of actively managed funds over the past five years through 2024.