TKer

When you come across a frightening headline about the stock market dropping 5% from its peak this year, TKer will clarify that it's not as alarming as it seems, since the market typically experiences an average drop of 14% during the year. TKer will highlight that new home sales are on the rise, but it’s important to note that this increase is mainly due to homes that have not yet started construction. While many may suggest that stricter monetary policies are bad for the market, TKer will point out that historically, stock prices tend to rise after the Federal Reserve's initial rate hike.

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TKer subscription pricing update ๐จ

1 week ago | tker.co | Sam Ro

Weโre raising the prices for new paid subscribers on May 1, 2025. New monthly plan price: $19.00New annual plan price: $199.00Prices for existing paid subscribers will remain the same. If you are already a paid subscriber, you will continue to be charged $9/month or $99/year as long as you donโt cancel and continue to renew your subscription. This original rate of $9/month or $99/year applies to anyone who is a paid subscriber beforeMay 1, 2025.
We're gonna get ambiguous signals in the economic data ๐ตโ๐ซ

1 week ago | tker.co | Sam Ro

Weโre halfway through April, which means weโre about to get a ton of hard March economic data โ as well as a flurry of Q1 earnings announcements. On Wednesday, weโll get March retail sales and industrial production. On Thursday, weโll get building permits and housing starts. Next week, weโll get new home sales, existing home sales, and durable goods orders. And the week after that, weโll get personal income, personal spending, and Q1 GDP.
How companies can be helpful if they decide to yank guidance π"£

2 weeks ago | tker.co | Sam Ro

More and more people are talking about the likelihood of companies withdrawing guidance in the coming weeks. TKer subscribers have been reading about this issue for over a month. More here, here, and here. When companies decline to provide guidance on where they think sales and earnings are headed, investors and analysts have less information to work with as they consider where a companyβs stock is headed. This means a wider range of expected outcomes, which exacerbates stock price volatility.
Bear markets in context π"

3 weeks ago | tker.co | Sam Ro

The stock market has plummeted to bear market levels. In early trading on Monday, the S&P 500 fell as much as 4.7% to 4,835.04. If the S&P closes below 4,915.32 today (or in the near future), it will be down 20% from its February 19 closing high of 6,144.15. This would confirm we officially entered a bear market1 at that high, and the bull market that started on October 12, 2022, officially ended. Clearly, the financial markets do not approve of President Trumpβs tariff policy.
2 quotes I'm thinking about as the stock market tanks ๐

3 weeks ago | tker.co | Sam Ro

The stock market got wrecked this week, with the S&P 500 tumbling 9.1%. Fridayโs 6% plunge was the biggest one-day loss since March 16, 2020. The index is now down 17.4% from its February 19 closing high of 6,144.15. As a long-term investor in the stock market, I understand that getting smoked in the short-term is part of the deal. As a human being with a โbig dumb lizard brain,โ I canโt help but get caught up in the news and be tempted to trade this market.
The stock market's history with recessions π

3 weeks ago | tker.co | Sam Ro

Iβm not convinced weβre doomed for a recession. But as Iβve been saying for months, I think itβs getting harder to argue that growth is destiny. With the Trump administrationβs announcement of aggressive tariffs on all U.S. trading partners, the risk we soon fall into a recession has intensified. In the same way itβs prudent for investors to always brace for stock market volatility, I think itβs sensible to be on guard for the possibility of a recession in the near future.
Rising anti-American sentiment is not great for the American brand abroad πΊπΈ

3 weeks ago | tker.co | Sam Ro

Experts broadly agree that the imposition of new tariffs is bad for everyone. It raises the costs of goods affected, which also lowers the demand for those goods. Both the customers and producers lose. But the full impact of new tariffs goes beyond the first-order, direct effects on inflation and demand. There are second-order effects to consider. These are the harder-to-measure indirect and unintended consequences of new tariffs.
The stock market is not the economy, charted π

1 month ago | tker.co | Sam Ro

The U.S. stock market is very much related to the U.S. economy in that publicly traded U.S. companies conduct most of their business in their home country. This dynamic also reflects one of the many ways the stock market is not the economy.
Mean reversion in the stock market is an 'optical illusion' ๐ตโ๐ซ

1 month ago | tker.co | Sam Ro

Earlier this month, UBS published the 2025 edition of its โGlobal Investment Returns Yearbook.โThe 294-page encyclopedic review of historical financial market data is authored by Professors Paul Marsh, Mike Staunton, and Elroy Dimson, who have been updating the compendium annually since 2000.
More proof that predicting short-term stock market moves is almost impossibly hard π§Έ

1 month ago | tker.co | Sam Ro

A little over a year ago, I wrote: βProof that predicting short-term stock market moves is almost impossibly hard.βAt the time, Goldman Sachs was the first of the prominent Wall Street firms to revise higher their 2024 target for the S&P 500. And in the weeks and months that followed, almost every major strategist revised their targets β some multiple times. The stock market, once again, had Wall Street on its heels. Today, weβre being reminded this phenomenon cuts both ways.