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Jan 14, 2025 | 
minczifra.substack.com | András Tóth-Czifra
The most important change that the past year brought to Russia in my view – something that I expect to become increasingly obvious in 2025 – is that the narrative that the Kremlin pursued in the first roughly two years of the war has irrevocably expired.
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Nov 29, 2024 | 
minczifra.substack.com | András Tóth-Czifra
“New elite” updatesThe appointment of officials with war participant credentials continued in November and it looks like that this is increasingly becoming an expectation of the Presidential Administration of regional administrative elites.
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Oct 9, 2024 | 
themoscowtimes.com | András Tóth-Czifra
Last week's appointment of Artyom Zhoga, a former entrepreneur and fighter for the self-styled Donetsk People's Republic as presidential plenipotentiary in the Urals Federal District is the clearest signal yet towards incumbent elites that President Vladimir Putin was serious when he said in February that soldiers and veterans are the country's “new elite.”The Kremlin has so far successfully defined what is acceptable and expected behavior in Russia.
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Sep 17, 2024 | 
themoscowtimes.com | András Tóth-Czifra
Over the past week, Russian troops started a counterattack in the Kursk Region, which has been partially under Ukrainian occupation since early August. Whatever the outcome, Ukraine likely achieved the goal of changing the conversation in Western capitals – as well as in Moscow – about the war’s trajectory by reminding everyone of the shortcomings of the Russian military.
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Aug 28, 2024 | 
minczifra.substack.com | András Tóth-Czifra
At the time of this writing, more than 1,200 square kilometers of the Kursk Region could be under Ukrainian control (according to Ukrainian claims). Five districts in the region have been evacuated with more than 100,000 people forced to leave their homes, but thousands of people are unaccounted for. Since the beginning of the Ukrainian army’s incursion, more than 400 so-called “Liza alerts” (for missing people) have been posted.
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Jul 10, 2024 | 
themoscowtimes.com | András Tóth-Czifra
“Mission accomplished!” crowed Viktor Orbán on July 5 after his surprise trip to Moscow, organized, as the Hungarian prime minister himself admitted, in utmost secrecy behind the back of Hungary’s allies, and, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy whom Orbán had met days earlier, Ukraine.
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Jun 29, 2024 | 
minczifra.substack.com | András Tóth-Czifra
(Nearly) mid-year regional finances updateThe Finance Ministry wants to introduce a country-wide tourist tax, which would benefit regional budgets. The measure, which has been tried out in four regions over the past years (in a slightly different structure), is expected to bring up to 26.6 billion rubles a year to regional treasuries, albeit not evenly distributed. Thanks for reading No Yardstick! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.
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Jun 7, 2024 | 
fpri.org | András Tóth-Czifra
Key TakeawaysThe Russian government expects 2024 to be a turning point in the country’s war against Ukraine. For this expectation to become reality, the Kremlin is using means of reflexive control: It projects an image of a country that has weathered Western sanctions, ramped up its economic performance, and united a society behind its leader and his goals. This strategy was confirmed by personnel changes executed after Vladimir Putin’s inauguration for a fifth presidential term.
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Jun 2, 2024 | 
minczifra.substack.com | András Tóth-Czifra
City bluesOn May 20 the legislative assembly of the Yaroslavl Region started discussing a draft law, which would oblige the region’s municipal officials to coordinate all official international contacts with the regional government, including to report all official trips abroad. The region was not the first to establish a firmer control over the trips of municipal officials: the Rostov Region limited travel for all officials with access to state secrets in February this year.
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May 14, 2024 | 
minczifra.substack.com | András Tóth-Czifra
On May 12, as the State Duma approved the first set of changes to the composition of Mikhail Mishustin’s government, I drafted a piece arguing that notwithstanding the appointment of five new ministers to the government – four of them sitting governors – and the elevation of two “princelings” – Dmitry Patrushev to the position of deputy prime minister and Boris Kovalchuk to head the Accounts Chamber – this was, in fact, a very conservative government reshuffle, which left most key positions...
