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Nov 22, 2024 | 
usip.org | Andrew Scobell |Dan Spinelli
On Thursday, China’s ambassador, Ma Shengkun, presented his credentials at Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry. Ma, a career diplomat with a background in arms control, replaces Fan Xianrong who had held the post for the past four and a half years. While a diplomatic reshuffle was due, the timing of the turnover and the selection of Ma, in tandem with other recent developments, suggest that China discerns a gradual gathering of momentum for a peace process or truce talks in coming months.
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Oct 31, 2024 | 
usip.org | Andrew Scobell |Sameer Lalwani |Daniel Markey |South Asia Programs
KEY TAKEAWAYS Xi and Modi seem keen to patch things up in order to expand mutually beneficial economic interaction. But the deal does not necessarily herald a strategic shift by Beijing and New Delhi. India is unlikely to reverse course in its relationship with the U.S., which has deepened in recent years. KEY TAKEAWAYS Xi and Modi seem keen to patch things up in order to expand mutually beneficial economic interaction.
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Sep 5, 2024 | 
usip.org | Gordon Peake |Camilla Pohle |Andrew Scobell
Last week, the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) met in Nukuʻalofa, Tonga, to discuss the challenges affecting the region. The PIF is an intergovernmental organization with the purpose of enhancing cooperation among the countries and territories of Oceania, including Australia, New Zealand, 14 independent Pacific Island countries, and France’s territories of New Caledonia and French Polynesia.
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Jul 31, 2024 | 
usip.org | Andrew Scobell
China and the Philippines recently struck a secretive deal to deescalate confrontations over the Second Thomas Shoal, “one of the tensest flashpoints in the western Pacific,” says USIP’s Andrew Scobell. “Nobody wants to see it escalate to war,” but the “the ambiguity [of the deal] … allows both sides to claim victory.” U.S. Institute of Peace experts discuss the latest foreign policy issues from around the world in On Peace, a brief weekly collaboration with SiriusXM's POTUS Channel 124.
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Jul 25, 2024 | 
nbr.org | Chung Min Lee |Evans J.R. Revere |Andrew Scobell |Hideya Kurata
North Korea’s Strategic Choices amid Shifting Geopolitics Jenny Town The Gathering Storm: A Confluence of North Korea’s Looming Crises Chung Min Lee The United States and North Korea: New Threats, New Challenges, and the Need for New Resolve Evans J.R. Revere Grappling with Great-Power Competition: China Bandwagons with Petulant North Korea Andrew Scobell Going Tactical: North Korea and Two-State Theory in War Strategy Hideya Kurata The Korean Peninsula’s New Geopolitics: Why North Korea Is...
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Jul 25, 2024 | 
usip.org | Robert Barron |Andrew Scobell |Adam Gallagher
Hamas, Fatah and a dozen smaller Palestinian factions signed on Tuesday in Beijing a joint statement calling for, among other things, the formation of a national unity government. Fatah, the secular party that controls the Palestinian Authority, and Hamas, which perpetrated the October 7 terrorist attack that led to the ongoing war in Gaza, have been divided since 2007. Their rivalry has long been a thorn in the side of the Palestinian cause and numerous attempts at reconciliation have failed.
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Jul 25, 2024 | 
usip.org | Andrew Scobell |Daniel Spinelli |Brian Harding |Carla P. Freeman
China and the Philippines this weekend reached a deal aimed at reducing their growing tensions over Second Thomas Shoal. The agreement comes as maritime confrontations have been increasing in frequency and intensity, raising fears of a broader conflict that could lead to the Philippines invoking its mutual defense treaty with the United States.
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Jun 20, 2024 | 
usip.org | Mary Glantz |Frank Aum |Carla P. Freeman |Andrew Scobell
As President Vladimir Putin’s illegal war on Ukraine grinds on, the Russian leader needs friends and supporters wherever he can get them. To that end, Putin traveled this week to North Korea for the first time in nearly 25 years, looking to deepen cooperation with the rogue regime and, chiefly, to get more ammunition for his war on Ukraine. Putin and Kim Jong Un inked what the North Korean leader called “the most powerful treaty” ever between the two countries.
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Jun 12, 2024 | 
usip.org | Andrew Scobell
The recently concluded 2024 Shangri La Dialogue in Singapore provided another useful opportunity for senior U.S. and Chinese national security officials to engage in face-to-face bilateral discussions and interact with officials and experts from other states. While these engagements have value in theory, they highlight three persistent problems in the practice of U.S.-China relations. First, the United States and China tend to talk past each other.
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Mar 14, 2024 | 
usip.org | Carla P. Freeman |Brian Harding |Andrew Scobell
On March 5, Chinese coast guard vessels sideswiped a Philippine patrol vessel and used water cannons against another boat carrying a Filipino admiral and provisions to Filipino service members stationed at the Philippine-occupied Second Thomas Shoal, or Ayunyin Shoal, in the South China Sea. Manila, which calls the sea the West Philippines Sea, has been pushing back against China’s so-called ten-dash line through which Beijing stakes claim to much of the sea, including land parcels.
