Andrew Sentance

Broxbourne

Freelance Contributor at Freelance

Independent business economist. Former CBI Director of Economic Affairs and BA Chief Economist. Member of #BoE MPC 2006-11. Guitarist & organist.

Featured in: Favicon

theguardian.com Favicon

independent.co.uk Favicon

thesun.co.uk Favicon

telegraph.co.uk Favicon

ft.com

thetimes.co.uk Favicon

standard.co.uk Favicon

cityam.com Favicon

prospectmagazine.co.uk Favicon

realclearmarkets.com + 6 more

Articles

Our statistics are going from bad to worse

2 months ago | capx.co | Andrew Sentance

17 April 2025 @asentance Photo: Getty Images Our statistical authorities are in the firing line of a powerful parliamentary committee There is widespread dissatisfaction among users of UK official statistics The ONS is too close to its regulators Last year, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) here in the UK hit the headlines for all the wrong reasons. Falling response rates to its Labour Force Survey – the main source of official labour market data – caused the Bank of England, the...
ANDREW SENTANCE: Trump's tariffs whipping up an inflation storm

2 months ago | thisismoney.co.uk | Andrew Sentance

A perfect storm is brewing, which could push UK inflation above 5 per cent by the autumn. It is currently at 2.8 per cent, up from last summer when it fell to its 2 per cent target, thanks to lower food and energy prices. That meant a sigh of relief for borrowers as it allowed the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee to cut interest rates three times from 5.25 to 4.5 per cent.
"Trump vs EU” can be an opportunity

Jan 29, 2025 | glistatigenerali.com | Andrew Sentance

It seems we are setting up for a clash between the Trump and the EU for two reasons: because the EU’s way of working (slowly, consensus, rules based) is anathema to Trump (it also comes across as less interesting for the media); and because the EU can/should seek to occupy the space which America is leaving due to Trump’s desire to return to the good old days. Let’s flesh these two out a little more.
What is going wrong with Britain's statistics?

Dec 5, 2024 | capx.co | Andrew Sentance

5 December 2024 @asentance Photo: Getty Images The Office for National Statistics is coming under fire Our main statistics agency is not keeping up with major economic developments We need much quicker action from our official statisticians and their regulators to fix problems The Office of National Statistics (ONS) plays a vital role in the UK by describing in cold hard numbers what is happening in our economy and society. We should not have to worry about the reliability of their figures....
Rising tax burden on business risks strangling drive for growth

Nov 6, 2024 | thetimes.com | Andrew Sentance

If Rachel Reeves wanted to make a big splash with her first budget last week, she has certainly succeeded. Public spending plans have been boosted substantially, building up to an extra £75 billion a year in the latter years of this parliament. Increased spending is being paid for by additional borrowing and higher taxes. Borrowing will be £40 billion higher in this financial year and £30 billion more than previously planned in 2028-29.
No short-term fix for UK public spending

Sep 11, 2024 | thetimes.com | Andrew Sentance

Rachel Reeves has not had a good start as our new chancellor. The £22 billion “black hole” identified by Treasury officials has been shown to be greatly inflated by her own decisions to increase public sector pay. Meanwhile, her changes to the pensioner winter fuel allowance, which will yield only £1.4 billion of savings, about 0.1 per cent of total public expenditure, have caused a massive public and political backlash. The new chancellor is right to focus on controlling public spending.
It’s time to stop thinking public borrowing is a bad thing

Aug 18, 2024 | thetimes.com | Andrew Sentance

Despite the change of government, one thing has not altered when it comes to governmenteconomic policy. Before the election, Jeremy Hunt was determined to rein in public borrowing and to stick to his self-imposed fiscal rules. Now Rachel Reeves, his successor, is just the same. Before the election, no commitments could be made by Reeves and her colleagues unless they were “fully funded”, that is there would be no addition to public borrowing.
Britain is still addicted to low interest rates

Aug 1, 2024 | capx.co | Andrew Sentance

Andrew Bailey and his deputies have taken a risky course Senior Bank officials have a tendency to follow media and political pressure We seem to be a nation addicted to low interest ratesA close decision was expected at today’s meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), which delivered the first interest rate cut since the start of the Covid pandemic. That was exactly what we got. Five members voted for an interest rate cut – and four voted to hold rates at 5.25%.
History lessons for Rachel Reeves from the most successful chancellors

Jul 16, 2024 | thetimes.com | Andrew Sentance

Rachel Reeves has already made history by becoming the first woman to hold the office of chancellor of Exchequer. It was 45 years ago, in 1979 — the year Reeves was born — that Margaret Thatcher became the first woman to be prime minister, yet only ten days ago that the first woman took control of the nation’s finances. What are the prospects for Reeves making a success of her chancellorship?
Let’s hope these manifestos show what’s missing — economic courage

Jun 10, 2024 | thetimes.com | Andrew Sentance

This week we will receive the manifestos from the major parties. Hopefully, their publication will raise the quality of the political debate on public finances — which has been unedifying so far in the election campaign. Independent experts, such as Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, have painted a dismal financial picture facing the next government.