Andrew Sentance

More bad news for future inflation: “Bank of England faces interest rate dilemma after 9% wage rise”. There is no dilemma though - it is simple and straightforward. The Bank should not be cutting rates with so many worrying signals for future inflation https://t.co/JRsyQgytVi

Has Trump just woken up from a parallel universe when he says “Putin was a good guy and I don’t understand what is wrong with him”? Putin has always been a dictator seeking to take territory from Ukraine. If Trump did not see this 10-12 years ago, he knowingly ignored the truth!

Congrats to England for beating Zimbabwe in 3 days, but the omens in the pace bowling dept are not good. In helpful conditions at Trent Bridge, the 3 front-line pace bowlers took just 6 wkts in the match. 1 each per innings. Won’t be good enough v India. https://t.co/IKwQGTXR7P

Despite boasts of Keir Starmer, Rachel Reeves etc, UK is NOTfastest growing G7 economy. One quarter’s data doesn’t tell us anything important. Correct figures from The Economist - for GDP growth yr-on-yr: Can 2.4; US 2.0; Japan 1.7; UK 1.3; Fra 0.8; Ita 0.6: Ger -0.2. UK is 4/7.

Very strong retail sales in April. Exc motor fuel, value of spending up 6.2pc on a year ago & volumes up 5.3pc. Even allowing for good weather, these are very substantial increases, not consistent with a struggling economy or lack of consumer demand. Why is #MPC cutting rates?

CPI inflation up to 3.5pc but my composite measure of UK inflation now 4.1 pc. Unlike 2021/22, UK inflation is now being led by the services sector, house prices + GDP deflator, capturing economy-wide price + wage pressures. Inflation now more deeply embeded - should worr #MPC. https://t.co/4GWzhkQOSr

My verdict on today’s PMQs. Labour + Tories have ground themselves to a standstill and are blaming each other. The parties in waiting to benefit - LibDens & Reforn - just keep quiet and soak up extra votes at any forthcoming election. That is the polirics of this Parliament.

Of 12 CPI categories 10 are above 2pc target and 8 above 3pc in 12 month inflation rate. That is a very broadly based pattern.

Andrew Sentance @asentance

@julianHjessop I think a 12 month comparison would show a different picture - ie more broadly based inflation.

High house price inflation is often a signal of excess demand, warning us that higher general inflation is coming. Latest ONS figures show 6.4pc UK house price inflation, highest since 2022 - up from falling house prices a year ago. A key signal that higher inflation is coming.

Inflation news is shocking. Not only has CPI rate leapt by nearly 1pc to 3.5%. RPI inflation has almost doubled, from 2.1pc to 3.7pc. CPIH (ONS’s favoured measure) = 4.1%. “Core” CPIH rate now 4.5pc! GDP deflator is also rising by 4.5pc. Many key inflation measures now over 4pc!

UK inflation jumps to 3.5pc, nearly 1pc up on previous month. Underlying inflation has also risen sharply - services inflation up to 5.4pc (from 4.7pc) and “core” CPI inflation (excluding food and energy) rising to 3.8pc (from 3.4pc). This rise in inflation is very broad-based.

I agree with Huw Pill who opposed this month’s reduction over inflation concerns But it is a worrying signal when the Chief Economist at the Bank of England disagreed with their interest rate strategy. Shared via the Google app https://t.co/8jN83j1lff

In advance of tomorrow’s inflation data, here’s a chart of my current forecast. Tomorrow, I expect CPI inflation to be 3.7 pc, compared to market consensus forecast of 3.3pc (as reported by FT). UK inflation likely to peak at over 4pc in summer/autumn - possibly as high as 5pc! https://t.co/3RV1AR766y

UK inflation rate set to leap after bill rises in April - so why did the #MPC cut interest rates in May? A bonkers move if you ask me, given the surge in inflation which is coming! https://t.co/Pk0S6R1Av9

UK GDP shows #MPC rate cut error last week. Nominal domestic demand is strong, +7.2% on year ago vs real GDP up just 1.3%. Excess demand fuelling 4.5% inflation (GDP deflator) + trade deficit rise (+1.4pc of GDP). UK problems: supply constraints/high inflation, not weak demand.

It’s amazing how confident some #MPC members are about the impact of Trump tariffs on inflation. The impact could go either way, and the best course for monetary policy would be not to pre-judge the impact but to respond to the economic evidence as it unfolds.

Retail sales values up 7 percent in April and 4.3 percent up in March/April combined, which adjusts for changes in the timing of Easter. This is part of a run of recent strong real UK economy data. Expect healthy GDP figures later this week. https://t.co/8p1rxOQRyq