Arvid Bell

Oct 3, 2024 | russiamatters.org | Paul Saunders |Harry Stevens |Marat Atnashev |Arvid Bell

Russia’s decisive turn toward China—politically, economically and technologically—has been among the most notable geopolitical consequences of President Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine. Yet Moscow and Beijing had been edging closer for over a decade before the invasion and, regardless of their relationship with one another, American officials have seen each as a major national security and foreign policy challenge for some time.

Sep 27, 2024 | russiamatters.org | Marat Atnashev |Arvid Bell |Thomas Graham |Masha Hedberg

Not a week seems to go by without Russian officials issuing some kind of nuclear warning. During a meeting with the Russian Security Council on Sept. 25, President Vladimir Putin described “clarifications” proposed to the “Fundamentals of State Policy in the Sphere of Nuclear Deterrence,” a document he said officially defines and details Russia's nuclear strategy, including establishing the basic principle of using nuclear weapons.

Sep 25, 2024 | russiamatters.org | Arvid Bell |Thomas Graham |Stephen Walt |Marat Atnashev

Why a Protracted Conflict Seems TolerableThe best alternative to a negotiated agreement (BATNA) for most political actors is the status quo of a protracted conflict with an escalation risk that is perceived as manageable. To both the West and Russia, this unequally hurting stalemate, while ugly, seems currently more attractive than the prospects of peace talks. Ukraine and its citizens hence find themselves caught in the middle of a cynical informal consensus among antagonistic forces.