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Dec 3, 2024 | 
indianexpress.com | Ashima Goyal
The second quarter GDP numbers have come in as a surprise to almost everyone. But they are consistent with a number of economic signals that were largely neglected. High frequency indicators have been pointing to a manufacturing slowdown for quite some time now. History was also repeating — in the 2010s, high real policy rates contributed to a manufacturing slowdown. Although there are specific seasonal factors at work, the nature and extent of the growth slowdown has several policy lessons.
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Nov 18, 2024 | 
thehindubusinessline.com | Ashima Goyal
India is a populous country that has unfortunately long neglected investing in its people by giving them uniform access to good education, relevant skills, clean air, water, smooth connectivity and other facilities. Many of these are prerequisites for participating in, gaining from and sustaining growth. That is why spending more on and improving governance in local institutions responsible for delivery of human and physical capital is essential.
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Sep 16, 2024 | 
thehindubusinessline.com | Ashima Goyal
Indian financial reforms aim for a deep, stable, commercially viable financial sector that can safely and efficiently finance development with inclusion. The liberalisation that started in the 1990s followed a unique combination of domestic market/regulatory development and gradual capital account convertibility that avoided domestic crises and survived the global financial crisis (GFC) with minimal impact.
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Jul 31, 2024 | 
eastasiaforum.org | Tawanda Sachikonye |Kati Suominen |Yasuo Takao |Ashima Goyal
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s May 2024 state visit to Brazil highlights not only the importance Japan places on a constructive as well as impactful partnership with Latin America’s largest economy, but also underscores Japan’s prioritisation of its nascent Global South engagement policy. Japanese policymakers increasingly view Brazil as a possible strategic partner in safeguarding an international rules-based order.
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Jul 30, 2024 | 
eastasiaforum.org | Kati Suominen |John Deighton |Leora Kornfeld |Ashima Goyal
Trade costs have fallen globally in the past 200 years on the back of reductions in tariffs and non-tariff barriers, trade facilitation initiatives and lower transport and communications costs. This has facilitated the rise of regional and global supply chains that have enabled companies, even in poorer East Asian countries, tosupply large multinationals, increase sales and drive economic growth and development.
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Jul 23, 2024 | 
eastasiaforum.org | Julian Dierkes |Liam Gammon |Ashima Goyal |Paul Chambers
Mongolia held its ninth parliamentary election since its 1990 democratic revolution on 28 June 2024, giving the ruling Mongolian People’s Party a narrow majority in the newly-enlarged parliament with 68 of 126 seats. Despite voter frustration with politics and governance, discontent was not strong enough to bring other parties to power. Democracies around the world are facing the challenge of democratic backsliding.
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Jul 18, 2024 | 
eastasiaforum.org | Ashima Goyal |Sumit Ganguly |Gaffar Muaqaffi
India’s policy direction of ‘aatmanirbhar’ (self-reliance) has created doubts about its commitment to openness. Interpretations tend to be dominated by the literal translation of the word, which has connotations of reversing liberalisation and closing down the economy. But the central policy aim is self-confidence, not self-sufficiency, which will require more, not less, openness.
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Jul 15, 2024 | 
thehindubusinessline.com | Ashima Goyal
The first priority for the new government is to raise the rate of creation of productive jobs in the economy. The choice of words is deliberate and crucial — ‘raise the rate’, not ‘create’. While different tiers of government do have to expand their services, productivity often is higher in contract and outsourced government jobs. For employment growth to rise many parts of the economy have to participate. He who forgets history is doomed to repeat it.
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May 20, 2024 | 
thehindubusinessline.com | Ashima Goyal
There no clarity on what ‘Atmanirbhar’ means as an economic concept and a policy direction. Interpretations tend to be dominated by the literal translation of the word, which is reliance on the self. But this plays to fears of a reversal of liberalisation and a closing of the economy again. The policy emphasis, however, is not on self-sufficiency but on self-confidence.
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May 9, 2024 | 
indianexpress.com | Ashima Goyal
A second argument was that since wholesale price index-based inflation had become negative in April 2023, high growth last year was spurious because CPI inflation was higher than the partially used WPI deflators. A lower inflation measure overestimates growth. But if low WPI overestimates growth, then high WPI inflation should underestimate growth. WPI inflation was in double digits for two years between April 2021 and March 2023.
