Austin Mock

Staff Writer at The New York Times

NFL | CFB | Sports Optimization | The Game Isn't Played on a Spreadsheet | @TheAthletic

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Articles

Ravens Considered Super Bowl Favorites By Projection Model

1 month ago | football.realgm.com | Jeff Howe |Austin Mock

The Baltimore Ravens have the highest odds to win the Super Bowl at 11.9 percent, according to Austin Mock's NFL Projection Model. The Buffalo Bills, at 10.1 percent, have the second-best projection. The Kansas City Chiefs (9.9 percent), Philadelphia Eagles (7.8 percent) and Detroit Lions (6.5 percent) round out the top-5. The Cleveland Browns are projected for 5.4 wins, which is the fewest in the NFL.
Why our model sees Ravens, not Eagles, as early favorites

1 month ago | nytimes.com | Jeff Howe |Austin Mock

We finally have the complete 2025 NFL schedule, which means it's time for us to predict some early favorites. We'll be using Austin Mock's NFL Projection Model, which forecasts the quality of each team and then simulates each game of the regular season and playoffs until a Super Bowl champion emerges. We repeat that process 100,000 times to provide a realistic measure of how many games a team is likely to win, as well as how likely teams are to make the playoffs and win the Super Bowl.
NFL Draft grades: An analytical look at the biggest winners and losers

1 month ago | ourcommunitynow.com | Austin Mock

By now, you’ve surely seen plenty of NFL Draft grades, but the issue with many of them is that they are subjective, based on the grader’s pre-draft beliefs about the prospects, and don’t account for all of the variables in play.Most are based purely on the players drafted and how they will fit into a team’s roster and scheme.
An analytical look at the biggest winners and losers

1 month ago | nytimes.com | Austin Mock

By now, you've surely seen plenty of NFL Draft grades, but the issue with many of them is that they are subjective, based on the grader's pre-draft beliefs about the prospects, and don't account for all of the variables in play. Most are based purely on the players drafted and how they will fit into a team's roster and scheme. And while those are certainly important pieces of the puzzle, there's a lot more to consider.
2025 NFL mock draft according to how the betting odds see it playing out

2 months ago | nytimes.com | Austin Mock

Betting on the NFL Draft has become so popular in recent years that you can take all the markets that are offered from various sportsbooks and get a pretty decent picture of how the first round is going to shake out. For example, Cam Ward is -20000 to be selected first overall, Travis Hunter is -1100 to be picked second, and Abdul Carter -700 to go third overall. Those are implied probabilities of 99.5, 91.7, and 87.5 percent, respectively.
How to Set Up a Video Studio in Any Office (No Space to Full Buildout)

2 months ago | impactplus.com | Austin Mock

You're excited to start using video to build trust, shorten your sales cycle, and grow your business. But now you're staring at your office space and wondering where to even begin. Maybe you tried a simple set-up in your office, spent hours trying to make it look just right, and it still doesn't look like you had hoped. Maybe you started researching how to build a studio and felt your stomach twist when you saw the price tag on some of the gear.
Using projection model, consensus big board to make best picks

2 months ago | nytimes.com | Austin Mock

The 2025 NFL Draft is finally here. That means no more rumors about quarterbacks making jumps into the first round, players falling due to possible injuries or "character concerns," and no more mock drafts. Well, I have one more mock draft for you before NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell hits the stage in Green Bay.
2025 NFL Draft best bets

2 months ago | nytimes.com | Austin Mock

If you're like me, you've been consuming just about every mock draft coming from a notable source for the past month or two - or maybe longer. But now the NFL Draft is nearly here so that means it's time to put up or shut up. Because the NFL Draft is wildly popular, sportsbooks have been so kind to give us plenty of options to bet on the event. My process for betting on the NFL Draft is simple.
Why are Bears so low?

2 months ago | nytimes.com | Austin Mock

We're officially one week away from the start of the NFL Draft, a three-day extravaganza where contenders will look to find players who can help keep them atop the mountain, while most teams are searching for the players to help bring them there. Right now, everyone is chasing the Super Bowl-champion Philadelphia Eagles, who, unsurprisingly, still have the best roster in the NFL according to my projection model. But where do all of the other teams rank? You're about to find out.
Cam Ward still outside top 10; Will Campbell moves up

2 months ago | nytimes.com | Austin Mock

As the 2025 NFL Draft class continues to take shape, it's time again to take stock of which prospects are standing out ahead of Round 1 on April 24. Our consensus Big Board combines rankings from a wide range of NFL Draft experts to identify how the top prospects are viewed relative to the rest of their class. In theory, by the time we reach draft weekend, these rankings should help give us a handle on how the picks could (or, at least, should) play out. How does the current top 100 look?