Benjy Sarlin

Washington, D.C., United States

Assignment Editor at Washington Post Opinions

Washington Bureau Chief at @semafor. Sign up for Principals and Americana at https://t.co/BQHSjHkC3I. bsarlin at semafor dot com. Same username on 🧵

Articles

Government shutdown: Did Dems make the right move?

2 months ago | washingtonpost.com | Benjy Sarlin
A very simple prescription for Democrats: Just wait | Semafor

Nov 8, 2024 | semafor.com | Benjy Sarlin

We’re deep in the “bargaining” phase now, as Democrats look for coalition members to blame, positions to dump, and language to police that will win them back the millions of voters they lost across the country on Tuesday. That’s a healthy part of any electoral loss, and it’s why we have free and fair elections — politicians only know when they touched the hot stove when voters tell them.
The 2024 election should end the ‘demographics are destiny’ era of politics | Semafor

Nov 7, 2024 | semafor.com | Benjy Sarlin

If there’s one takeaway from the latest election results for both parties, it’s that it should explode the “demographics” conversation that’s been dominating American politics this century. By “demographics” I mean an ongoing — often intensely racialized and divisive — debate about which party is positioning itself toward a durable long-term majority. Instead, the political imagination is a little bigger today than it was on Monday.
Donald Trump projected to decisively win a second term in the White House | Semafor

Nov 6, 2024 | semafor.com | Benjy Sarlin

Donald Trump is projected to win the US presidential election, completing an improbable comeback after he previously sought to overturn his prior loss, culminating in a riot at the Capitol, and faced criminal charges. The first president to be elected to non-consecutive terms since Grover Cleveland in 1892, Trump rode a wave of discontent over post-pandemic inflation and border crossings to victory.
Iowa’s top pollster shocks race with finding that Harris leads Trump

Nov 2, 2024 | semafor.com | Benjy Sarlin

The final Des Moines Register poll by J. Ann Selzer finds Vice President Kamala Harris leading former president Donald Trump among likely voters by a 47-44 margin. It’s a truly shocking finding from one of the nation’s few consensus “gold standard” pollsters, who has a long track record of closely predicting the results in her state. If it were to pan out, it would be an astounding upset. Trump easily won the state by about 9 points in 2016 and 8 in 2020.
Iowa’s top pollster shocks race with finding that Harris leads Trump

Nov 2, 2024 | flipboard.com | Benjy Sarlin

This is out of the blue. J. Ann Selzer is the best pollster in the country. She is reknowned for predicting within one point the last three …
Donald Trump’s friends are making big plans. Democrats are taking notice.

Oct 30, 2024 | semafor.com | Benjy Sarlin

Donald Trump supporters are feeling confident about their chances — maybe too confident. His top allies are increasingly boasting about sweeping new initiatives in politically perilous territory in the election’s final days, even as they have a knife’s-edge race to complete before they have a chance to enact any of them.
Why there are fewer polls this election

Oct 25, 2024 | semafor.com | Benjy Sarlin

As the old joke goes, for anxious election watchers, the polls are terrible — and such small portions!In addition to the usual concerns about accurately predicting a race that’s effectively deadlocked in every swing state, the sheer number of high-quality, brand-name polls has been in decline for several cycles.
Forget the median voter. This election is about the marginal voter now.

Oct 15, 2024 | flipboard.com | Benjy Sarlin

Forget the median voter. This election is about the marginal voter now. Political strategists sometimes stop to remind their fellow partisans that the median voter is a middle-class suburbanite in her 50s. But in a highly …
Forget the median voter. This election is about the marginal voter now.

Oct 15, 2024 | semafor.com | Benjy Sarlin

Here’s the most important thing to know about the closing message from the two campaigns: It’s not for you. By that I mean you, the news junkie currently reading this who likely made their mind up on this election before it ever started and is near-certain to cast a vote. No, at this point the campaigns are targeting a much narrower group of voters — even by recent standards — who they see as more persuadable. And this explains a lot of their behavior in the final stretch.