Bill Conerly
Senior Contributor at Forbes
The economist who connects the dots between economics ... and business.
Articles
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1 week ago |
seekingalpha.com | Bill Conerly
May 07, 2025 10:20 AM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , SummaryThe economy contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter, according to the official report on GDP. Widespread worry about consumers and businesses postponing purchases and hiring decisions has led economists to raise their estimated risk of recession.
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1 week ago |
forbes.com | Bill Conerly
The economy contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter, according to the official report on Gross Domestic Product. Widespread worry about consumers and businesses postponing purchases and hiring decisions has led economists to raise their estimated risk of recession, the Wall Street Journal reported in April. Yet the economic outlook is not bad if decisions on tariffs are concluded this summer. That’s true even if the tariffs end up significantly above last year’s rates.
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2 weeks ago |
forbes.com | Bill Conerly
Hiring and retention of employees are difficult for demographic reasons, I’ve argued in a series of articles on Forbes. But a management expert offers a different perspective: “The issue is not about people, it is really about owners and leaders, managers being cops instead of coaches.” That’s the view of Rudy Miick, shared from an email with his permission.
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3 weeks ago |
forbes.com | Bill Conerly
Business leaders may think that President Trump’s possible decision to fire Jerome Powell as chair of the Federal Reserve System is just a sideshow, but the resolution of control over the Fed has very large implications for business. Our future level of inflation and frequency of recessions—as well as the overall business climate—will be highly influenced by how the contest plays out. President Trump appointed Powell to lead the Fed in 2018.
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1 month ago |
forbes.com | Bill Conerly
Business leaders face monumental economic uncertainty from President Trump’s tariffs, immigration policy and regulatory actions. The risk of recession has risen, according to the Wall Street Journal’s survey of economists. Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller recently said, “Considering all this uncertainty, it is impossible to forecast how the economy will evolve very far into the future.” As an economic forecaster myself, I echo that view.
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My latest Forbes article, "Trump Vs. Powell: Business Planning Implications," looks at implications for inflation, economic fluctuations and long-term economic growth of the president's claim he can fire the Fed chair. Higher inflation, more biz cycles, positive very long term. https://t.co/T21bsa2ogb
Key steps in Forbes article "Tariffs And Other Chaos: Business Decisions With Economic Uncertainty" 1 Review business goals 2 Assess specific business risk 3 Assess business vulnerability to recession 4 Develop downside contingency plan 5 Develop upside contingency plan
"Tariffs And Other Chaos: Business Decisions With Economic Uncertainty" is my latest Forbes article, with 5 steps for business leaders to take in this uncertain economy. #economy #tariffs https://t.co/wJ96ppM9D5 https://t.co/8FVRJf1tgD