Bill Conerly

Portland

Senior Contributor at Forbes

The economist who connects the dots between economics ... and business.

Articles

Business Leadership Development In An Uncertain Economy

1 week ago | forbes.com | Bill Conerly

Identify key risks to the business. gettyBusiness leaders know the future is uncertain. The sharpest ones sketch out contingency plans for the things that could go wrong at the company. They could be external changes, such as recession, technological change, different social attitudes, new regulations, or upstart competitors. Some of the risks are internal: a critical machine goes down, the sales manager quits, or a supplier cannot deliver. The good business leader also knows that luck happens.
Por qué las tensiones arancelarias no cambiaron drásticamente las proyecciones de crecimiento mundial

1 week ago | forbesargentina.com | Amura CMS |Bill Conerly

La economía mundial sufrirá un leve impacto por la actual crisis arancelaria, según el promedio de pronósticos de economistas para los principales países. En diciembre, proyectaban un crecimiento global del 2,8 % para 2025 y del 2,9 % para 2026. Pero en junio de 2025, esas expectativas bajaron al 2,5 % y al 2,6 %. Para entender cómo ven el futuro los economistas, FocusEconomics consulta a pronosticadores de todo el mundo.
Why The World's Economic Forecasters Aren't Panicking Over Tariff Wars

2 weeks ago | seekingalpha.com | Bill Conerly

Jun. 12, 2025 9:05 AM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , SummaryTo understand what professional economists see for the future, FocusEconomics surveys forecasters around the world.
Why The World’s Economic Forecasters Aren't Panicking Over Tariff Wars

2 weeks ago | forbes.com | Bill Conerly

Global economic forecasts stable. gettyThe global economy will suffer only a little from the current tariff turmoil, according to the average economist forecasting major countries. Back in December, world economic growth had been expected to run 2.8% in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026. As of June 2025, expectations have dropped only to 2.5% and 2.6%. Latest forecast only a little lower than 6 months ago.
Great Wisdom On AI And The Future Of Work: We’ll Figure It Out

3 weeks ago | forbes.com | Bill Conerly

The future of work: we'll figure it out. gettyJobs and artificial intelligence continue to be a hot topic two years after I first wrote about job losses and the net gains from AI. Dario Amodei (a co-founder of Anthropic) recently made headlines on the topic, then the Society for Human Resource Management (SHRM) issued a report, which led to insightful comments from Christopher Lind and a short but very wise observation by Katherine Mangu-Ward. Amodei sounded a loud alarm in an interview with Axios.
The Fed's Problem And The Interest Rate Forecast

3 weeks ago | seekingalpha.com | Bill Conerly

Jun. 01, 2025 9:45 AM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , SummaryIn 2025, the Fed is coping with tremendous changes in policy, plus swings back and forth on tariffs. The latest Fed meeting minutes shed some light on the difficult decision. They lead me to anticipate no interest rate changes this year. Inflation can be stubborn to drop, which is why current measures remain above the Fed's two percent target.
Businomics: May

4 weeks ago | southsoundbiz.com | Bill Conerly

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The Fed’s Problem And The Interest Rate Forecast

4 weeks ago | forbes.com | Bill Conerly

Decision-makers at the Federal Reserve usually monitor issues connected to their dual mandate to keep employment high and inflation low. They prefer not to look at policy decisions made by the administration or Congress, though they sometimes have to predict the impact of policy changes. In 2025, however, the Fed is coping with tremendous changes in policy, plus swings back and forth on tariffs. Their latest minutes (from the May 2025 meeting) shed some light on the Fed’s difficult decision.
The Lost Magic Of Manufacturing Employment Never Really Was

1 month ago | forbes.com | Bill Conerly

There’s a pining for the glory days of manufacturing jobs among some Americans. But the great philosopher Billy Joel sang, “the good ole days weren't always good and tomorrow ain't as bad as it seems.” We should understand why some well-paying jobs (by yesterday’s standards) arose in certain locations and industries, and why new well-paying jobs will arise elsewhere in the future. Manufacturing employment has certainly dropped.
Economic Challenge: Dependency Rates Rise As Population Growth Falls

1 month ago | forbes.com | Bill Conerly

Birth rates have dropped faster than life expectancy has increased, causing slower population growth around the world. Forecasts from the United Nations predict that world population will actually decline after 2080. Slower population growth and even decline will not trigger economic catastrophe, but it will bring two economic challenges, one short-term and one long-term. With falling population growth rates, we will see the dependency rate rise.