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Bill Conerly

Portland

Senior Contributor at Forbes

The economist who connects the dots between economics ... and business.

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Articles

  • The Fed's Problem And The Interest Rate Forecast

    6 days ago | seekingalpha.com | Bill Conerly

    Jun. 01, 2025 9:45 AM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , SummaryIn 2025, the Fed is coping with tremendous changes in policy, plus swings back and forth on tariffs. The latest Fed meeting minutes shed some light on the difficult decision. They lead me to anticipate no interest rate changes this year. Inflation can be stubborn to drop, which is why current measures remain above the Fed's two percent target.

  • Businomics: May

    1 week ago | southsoundbiz.com | Bill Conerly

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  • The Fed’s Problem And The Interest Rate Forecast

    1 week ago | forbes.com | Bill Conerly

    Decision-makers at the Federal Reserve usually monitor issues connected to their dual mandate to keep employment high and inflation low. They prefer not to look at policy decisions made by the administration or Congress, though they sometimes have to predict the impact of policy changes. In 2025, however, the Fed is coping with tremendous changes in policy, plus swings back and forth on tariffs. Their latest minutes (from the May 2025 meeting) shed some light on the Fed’s difficult decision.

  • The Lost Magic Of Manufacturing Employment Never Really Was

    1 week ago | forbes.com | Bill Conerly

    There’s a pining for the glory days of manufacturing jobs among some Americans. But the great philosopher Billy Joel sang, “the good ole days weren't always good and tomorrow ain't as bad as it seems.” We should understand why some well-paying jobs (by yesterday’s standards) arose in certain locations and industries, and why new well-paying jobs will arise elsewhere in the future. Manufacturing employment has certainly dropped.

  • Economic Challenge: Dependency Rates Rise As Population Growth Falls

    3 weeks ago | forbes.com | Bill Conerly

    Birth rates have dropped faster than life expectancy has increased, causing slower population growth around the world. Forecasts from the United Nations predict that world population will actually decline after 2080. Slower population growth and even decline will not trigger economic catastrophe, but it will bring two economic challenges, one short-term and one long-term. With falling population growth rates, we will see the dependency rate rise.

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Bill Conerly
Bill Conerly @BillConerly
28 May 25

AI can indeed write a song. My friend asked AI: "Write a song in the style of comedic singer songwriter Greg Tamblyn.” Greg recounts the story here: https://t.co/FEKH0Z3MTu It's a funny song; not great, but not bad.

Bill Conerly
Bill Conerly @BillConerly
6 May 25

"Economic Forecast Update, May 2025: A Short Rocky Road" is my latest Forbes article, with stable interest rates, but on the assumption that tariff uncertainty ends this summer. Otherwise, recession and Fed cuts interest rates. #economy #recession https://t.co/FUf5qPxDIf

Bill Conerly
Bill Conerly @BillConerly
30 Apr 25

My quick take on today's data storm: U.S. not in recession (probably). GDP a mess of tariff anticipation & random noise. Consumers OK, wages good, inflation OK. https://t.co/OrI41Ljq8H