Bill McBride

3 weeks ago | calculatedrisk.substack.com | Bill McBride |Bill mcBride

This data suggests sales will be down year-over-year for the 3rd consecutive month in April, and that sales-to-date in 2025 are trailing sales in 2024 - and 2024 was the lowest sales year since 1995! Also, it seems sales in April might have a 3 handle (be under 4 million). This is the third look at several early reporting local markets in April. I’m tracking over 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas.

1 month ago | calculatedrisk.substack.com | Bill McBride |Bill mcBride

Here is the ICE April Mortgage Monitor report (pdf). Press Release: ICE Mortgage Monitor: First-Time Homebuyers Comprise Record Share of Agency Purchase Lending in Q1 2025Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. … today released its May 2025 Mortgage Monitor Report, which delves into the rising share of first-time and Gen Z homebuyer participation in the mortgage market.

1 month ago | open.substack.com | Bill McBride |Bill mcBride

One of the keys for housing demand is demographics. This month the Census Bureau released their estimates of the U.S. population by age for July 2024. The following graph is based on the release for 2024. Note that the largest age group is in their early-to-mid 30s. There are still a number of younger Boomers in their early-to-mid 60s. I’ll return to the above graph and discuss some of the implications for the next decade, but first, here is a similar graph for July 2010.

2 months ago | calculatedrisk.substack.com | Bill McBride |Bill mcBride

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and CompletionsHousing Starts:Privately-owned housing starts in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,501,000. This is 11.2 percent above the revised January estimate of 1,350,000, but is 2.9 percent below the February 2024 rate of 1,546,000. Single-family housing starts in February were at a rate of 1,108,000; this is 11.4 percent above the revised January figure of 995,000.

Mar 5, 2025 | calculatedrisk.substack.com | Bill McBride |Bill mcBride

Here is the ICE March Mortgage Monitor report (pdf).