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Jan 14, 2025 | 
wilsoncenter.org | Boris Grozovski |William Hill |Maxim Trudolyubov |Lucian Kim
Russia’s exiled opposition faces a critical challenge of legitimacy, struggling to connect with the Russian people at home and abroad, and with international audiences as well. While united in their anti-Putin stance, divisions over patriotism, national identity, and Western alignment have hindered their ability to build a cohesive movement.
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Jan 10, 2025 | 
wilsoncenter.org | Boris Grozovski |William Hill |Maxim Trudolyubov |Lucian Kim
Russia’s war economy, now in its third year, is facing mounting challenges, including rising inflation, labor shortages, and growing economic imbalances. While these issues strain the civilian economy, they have not been severe enough to force Vladimir Putin to halt the war.
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Sep 26, 2024 | 
wilsoncenter.org | Boris Grozovski
Since initiating the war in Ukraine, Russia has become a political pariah in the West but has managed to solidify alliances with Iran and North Korea. Russia's influence has also strengthened in Central Asia, where fears of Russian aggression have led to a cautious approach calculated not to antagonize Moscow. Similarly, Russia’s standing in Azerbaijan has improved, with Putin gaining favor by effectively distancing himself from Armenia, Russia’s former ally and Azerbaijan’s regional rival.
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Aug 8, 2024 | 
wilsoncenter.org | Boris Grozovski
Last week Peter Reddaway, a remarkable political scientist, researcher of the USSR and Russia, and civil activist who did much to defend human rights in the USSR, passed away. Peter was not only a scholar, he was also a generous, insightful teacher, and always stood out among the scholars of the USSR by his understanding that the USSR was not just Russia.
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Jun 18, 2024 | 
wilsoncenter.org | Boris Grozovski
Russia’s war against Ukraine has been accompanied by the severing of economic, financial, and cultural ties between Russia and the West. Yet Russia has not become a "besieged fortress" and is not seeking self-sufficiency. It is important for Putin to maintain export revenues and not leave industry without the necessary imported components, including dual-use ones.
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Apr 25, 2024 | 
wilsoncenter.org | Boris Grozovski
After months of political wrangling the Ukraine military aid package cleared both chambers of Congress and was signed by the president on Wednesday. This is an important milestone signaling bipartisan support for the Ukrainian cause. Yet, although immediate shipments were promised, a substantial portion of the package—$48 billion out of nearly $61 billion—will pay for replenishing U.S. weapons stockpiles and producing new equipment for Ukraine.
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Feb 23, 2024 | 
wilsoncenter.org | Boris Grozovski
As the war in Ukraine enters its third year, fatigue has set in in all the countries directly or indirectly involved. It is difficult for politicians to decide to increase military spending: there are always domestic problems that voters prioritize. It is difficult for companies to increase arms production quickly. In both Ukraine and Russia, there is an obvious shortage of people willing to fight. However, Russia’s political and economic system is far better prepared for war.
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Feb 22, 2024 | 
wilsoncenter.org | Boris Grozovski
The murder of Alexei Navalny was not an act but a process. It took several years. Putin’s attempt to poison Navalny in 2020 with the nerve agent Novichok was preceded by years of stalking by FSB officers. When he survived the near fatal poisoning, Putin put him in prison for nineteen years. Incarceration in a Russian prison is not just a restriction of freedom but a humiliating and physically intolerable existence. The daily routine is rigid.
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Nov 2, 2023 | 
wilsoncenter.org | Boris Grozovski
It is much easier for authoritarian countries to wage war than for democracies. Having failed to “freeze Europe” in the winter of 2022–2023 by switching off the gas supply, Vladimir Putin is once again hoping that time is on his side. In the United States and much of Europe, willingness to support Ukraine in its confrontation with Russia is waning. Voters are unhappy with rising aid spending on Ukraine and rising inflation.
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Sep 7, 2023 | 
wilsoncenter.org | Boris Grozovski
Russia’s military expenditure has tripled compared to pre-war times. By 2023, the government intends to spend $160 billion on military needs, or 40 percent of its budget. Combined with regional and private war-related expenditures, this figure may surpass 10 percent of GDP in 2023.
