Bradford DeLong

Berkeley

Writer at Freelance

No longer posting here. At https://t.co/TMHcuxEHoH. Subscribe to https://t.co/kOfXsTAUKb. Buy “Slouching Towards Utopia" https://t.co/ThTkDsjUHf

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Articles

America Is About to Become the Next Brexit

1 month ago | socialeurope.eu | J Bradford DeLong |Bradford DeLong

As Trump plots a radical reshaping of global economics, allies must prepare for betrayal, chaos—and painful consequences. In a recent podcast interview with Ezra Klein of The New York Times, Gillian Tett of the Financial Times fell into what has become a common trap: “sanewashing” the economic policies of US President Donald Trump’s second administration.
The Fed's remarkable feat

Dec 28, 2023 | interest.co.nz | David Hargreaves |Bradford DeLong

Monetary-policy watchers are currently divided into two groups. But perhaps both sides should pause and reflect on where we were 18 months ago and where we are now. On one side of the divide are those of us who still obsess over the great imbalance between the supply of savings and the demand for funds for real investment.
The Attention Economy goes to court

Oct 27, 2023 | interest.co.nz | Gareth Vaughan |David Hargreaves |Bradford DeLong

The Google antitrust trial has finally shown just how much the world’s dominant search engine is willing – and able – to pay to be the default on smartphones and other devices: $26 billion in 2021 alone, $18 billion of which went to another tech giant, Apple. While Google has long tried to guard this number, it was always known to be large – and so it is. What is Google paying for?
BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-10-10 Tu

Oct 10, 2023 | braddelong.substack.com | Bradford DeLong

CryptoGrifts: A great resource:Molly White…100% concur. Everyone reading and reviewing Michael Lewis should be reading and reviewing Zeke Faux instead: Ezra Klein: ‘Zeke Faux’s “Number Go Up” is the best tour through the crypto crash… the reporting, earns its conclusions, and is clearer on what melted FTX into slag….
BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-10-06 Fr

Oct 6, 2023 | braddelong.substack.com | Bradford DeLong

Michael Lewis’s Stockholm Syndrome; the Great Mortality Shift; “modern” browsers; very briefly noted; & Jonathan Levin, Joe Weisenthal, & Tim Kane on the Phillips Curve, on the Fed, & blaming the Democrats; & me on bond-market vigilantes, gambler’s ruin, afterthoughts on Slouching Towards Utopia, & briefly noting…The $8 billion that Alameda borrowed from FTX without providing any real collateral is gone.
After 30 Years, the Bond Market Vigilantes Are Back!

Oct 6, 2023 | braddelong.substack.com | Bradford DeLong

Now comes this morning’s employment report. It is a very good one for the employment-production side of the economy:Bureau of Labor Statistics: Employment Situation Summary: ‘Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 336,000 in September, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.8 percent.… The unemployment rate held at 3.8 percent in September, and the number of unemployed persons was essentially unchanged at 6.4 million….
There are Complex-Number One-Norm Element Amplitudes of 0.006 in Which Sam Bankman-Fried Is Happy

Oct 5, 2023 | braddelong.substack.com | Bradford DeLong

Matt Levine thinks about Sam Bankman-Fried, risk-taking, and the Kelly Criterion—the rule that the fraction f of your wealth you should bet on a double-or-nothing bet is f = p - (1-p)/b, where p is the chance of winning and b is the win-loss odds ratio.
BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-10-04 We

Oct 4, 2023 | braddelong.substack.com | Bradford DeLong

How Kevin McCarthy lost his Speakership job; SubStack management has gotten itself into the business of boosting vicious racist idiots; FT video on “semiconductor supremacy”; very briefly noted; & me, Pitney, Szali, me, Biden, & Bard on House procedure, how Kevin McCarthy is a liar, how Michael Lewis is now a Sam Bankman-Fried acolyte, McCarthy’s stupidity, McCarthy’s untrustfullness, and how Chief Crazy Horse yelled “Heghlu'meH QaQ jajvam!” at the Battle of the Little Bighorn; plus briefly...
Brief Musings on Economists, Economic Ideas, & the Cold War

Oct 3, 2023 | braddelong.substack.com | Bradford DeLong

In the end George Kennan was right: containment was the way to win the Cold War because, ultimately, the really-existing socialist system inside the Iron Curtain was not made to work well enough, while the market-capitalist system outside the Iron Curtain was. But this required that economists think up useful ideas about economic-system management and then actually get them applied in the real world, somehow—and that the ideas actually work.
A Note of Puzzlement on Kevin McCarthy's Strategy

Oct 3, 2023 | braddelong.substack.com | Bradford DeLong

I read this as McCarthy tacking left while trying not to say so, and throwing Ukraine under the bus—for the moment at least—to give MAGA-heads & those with embarrassing videos from the Red Square a face-saving way to declare victory. But I do not really know—and if anybody really knows, they are not talking…Is McCarthy making this a vote of “no confidence” in the parliamentary sense? Or is he actually making a deal with the Democrats while saying he is not?

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