Brian Scheid

New Jersey

S&P Global Market Intelligence Senior Reporter, Global Markets. Former Platts, Capitol Crude. All opinions my own and mostly on Minnesota baseball.

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Articles

Key portion of yield curve near inversion end with another still deeply negative

Aug 10, 2024 | spglobal.com | Brian Scheid

A key portion of the Treasury yield curve has largely returned to flat, more than two years after it inverted and triggered a blaring recession signal. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury bond yields, which has been negative since July 2022, briefly reached zero earlier this month after a weaker-than-expected jobs report boosted the expectations for multiple Fed rate cuts before the end of 2024. The spread settled at negative 5 basis points Aug. 8.
Investors extend equities sell-off in July as rally fizzles

Aug 9, 2024 | spglobal.com | Brian Scheid

Institutions, hedge funds and retail investors continued to sell their stock holdings in July as the equities rally showed signs of fatigue. These three groups sold off a combined net $36.04 billion of stocks in July as the S&P 500 gained just over 1.1% from the end of June, compared to the more than 15.1% rally in the index during the first six months of 2024, the latest S&P Global Market Intelligence data shows.
Magnificent 7 stocks stumble, boosting peak views

Aug 6, 2024 | spglobal.com | Brian Scheid

The mega-cap technology stocks that have pushed US indexes to multiple all-time highs this year took some of the biggest losses in the August market selloff, stoking speculation that the Magnificent 7 stocks are now beyond their peak. These seven stocks — Apple Inc., Tesla Inc., Alphabet Inc., NVIDIA Corp., Microsoft Corp., Amazon.com Inc., and Meta Platforms Inc. — lost a combined $1.319 trillion in market capitalization, or about 9%, from July 31 through Aug.
Stock market woes will not trigger emergency rate cut by Fed

Aug 5, 2024 | spglobal.com | Brian Scheid

An ongoing rout in equity markets, fueled partly by fears that the Federal Reserve has kept interest rates too high for too long, will not force central bank officials to slash rates before their September meeting, Fed watchers said. However, the Fed is now expected to cut rates significantly more before year-end than previously anticipated. It is unlikely to move earlier unless the stock market's woes spread quickly through the broader economy.
Rate cuts coming as soon as September while Fed waits on further cooling

Aug 1, 2024 | spglobal.com | Brian Scheid

Rate cuts are coming, but the US Federal Reserve is not ready to say when. With inflation slowly dropping to the Fed's 2% goal, and one of the most robust labor markets in generations starting to soften, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on July 31 said the first rate cuts since the early days of the pandemic could be approved at the Fed's Sept. 18 meeting.
US businesses slow hiring as views of the job market dim

Jul 31, 2024 | spglobal.com | Brian Scheid

Businesses have slowed hiring to levels largely unseen for the past decade even as US unemployment remains relatively low, there are significantly more job openings than Americans looking for work, and wages continue to grow. The US hiring rate fell to 3.4% in June, the lowest level since at least January 2014, outside of the first two months of the pandemic in early 2020, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported July 30.
Fears rise that Fed may mistime rate cuts as inflation inches lower

Jul 29, 2024 | spglobal.com | Brian Scheid

The US Federal Reserve is all but guaranteed to hold interest rates steady again this week. Yet with inflation moderating,joblessness on the rise,wage growth stallingand much of thedomestic economy clearly slowing, there is a growing unease that the central bank may cut too late.
Trump, Vance campaign collides with US dollar's bull run

Jul 25, 2024 | spglobal.com | Brian Scheid

The nearing presidential election is likely to spark the end of the bull run for the US dollar, which has rallied for much of the past two years, bolstered by high interest rates and a resilient domestic economy. The US Dollar Index — a measure of the dollar against a basket of other widely traded international currencies — has fallen about 2% since late June after a long climb up. The index is up about 16% from two years ago and jumped about 27% from its May 2021 low to its September 2022 high.
High mortgage rates keeping Americans from new jobs, straining labor market

Jul 22, 2024 | spglobal.com | Brian Scheid

Homeowners with historically low mortgage rates are increasingly avoiding new, better-paying jobs that would require them to move, a development that is pressuring already elevated housing prices and limiting domestic labor mobility. With home prices now surging to all-time highs and mortgage rates still hovering around 7%, a reluctance to move is surfacing in US labor market data.
Small-cap stocks rally on Fed rate cut expectations

Jul 18, 2024 | spglobal.com | Brian Scheid

After lagging large capitalization stocks for months, small-cap stocks may be having a moment. The S&P 600, an index of smaller-cap stocks, fell by just over 1% through the first six months of the year, while the large-cap S&P 500 rallied about 15.1%. From July 1 to July 16, however, the S&P 600 rose 10.3%, while the S&P 500 went up 3.5%. The Russell 2000, another index of small-cap stocks, increased 11.5% during the same period after rising just 1.7% in the first six months of the year.