Cameron Bagrie

Wellington

Managing Director and Chief Economist, Bagrie Economics and Contributor at Freelance

Managing Director at Bagrie Economics. Independent. straight shooting economics insights most Sundays 8pm. Details at https://t.co/cCeahIr699

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Articles

More means testing is inevitable unless we are prepared to pay more tax

3 weeks ago | businessdesk.co.nz | Cameron Bagrie

Means testing was a sub-theme in the 2025 Budget. This sub-theme appears poised to gain momentum over the coming decade as fiscal necessity dictates. A means test is a method for determining whether an individual qualifies for financial assistance or benefits based on their income and resources.The Budget announced that the Government’s KiwiSaver contribution will be means-tested for people earning $180,000 a year.
The Government's Bunny Budget

1 month ago | businessdesk.co.nz | Cameron Bagrie

The Government pulled a rabbit out of the hat in the form of pay equity savings, which effectively meant an austerity budget was averted. A transfer was made from Paul/Penelope to Peter/Pippa in the form of pay equity savings versus Investment Boost.Gross initiatives of $6.7 billion were funded by $5.3b of savings, the largest chunk coming from pay equity savings of $2.8b per annum.
How bad is the Government’s fiscal position?

1 month ago | businessdesk.co.nz | Cameron Bagrie

The Government is portraying a mess and the implicit need for austerity in the 2025 Budget and subsequent Budgets, if fiscal targets and a return to surplus are to be achieved. The word austerity is being shunned, but there is no free lunch if a return to surplus is to be achieved. You need to find savings, and that involves tough decisions.The opposition and previous Government are denying responsibility and the need for austerity, but how their numbers stack up is anyone’s guess.
Why NZ’s defence budget isn’t adding up

1 month ago | businessdesk.co.nz | Cameron Bagrie

Trade-offs. That is my word to describe the upcoming Budget, because we face many competing priorities. Defence is now a clear priority. But where is the money coming from if we expect government spending to decline overall as a share of the economic pie? Peter needs to pay Paul. Who is Peter?Every economist has a bullshit radar.
There is no free lunch when it comes to austerity

1 month ago | businessdesk.co.nz | Cameron Bagrie

A zero 2025 Budget.
Surge in school student stand-downs a concerning education issue

2 months ago | businessdesk.co.nz | Cameron Bagrie

Students are being stood down from school more often, for up to five days. It’s like being suspended. Is it an effective intervention, allowing a cooling-off period, or becoming a fall-back option for schools? I’m not sure we really know.Readers may have noticed I have a bee in my bonnet about education. It’s at the epicentre of where the economy is going to be in 30 years.
David Gibson resigns as NZME director for 'personal reasons'

2 months ago | businessdesk.co.nz | Rebecca Stevenson |Cameron Bagrie

David Gibson has resigned from the board of NZME for “personal reasons”.The media company announced his resignation in a brief statement to the market on Tuesday morning, saying it was with “immediate effect”.It comes as the incumbent board is being challenged by one of its significant shareholders, Jim Grenon, to remove the entire board.NZME was meant to have its annual meeting on April 29, but it has since pushed that back to June 3 and reopened nominations for directors.A former investment...
Perennial asset class learnings (and some private lessons)

2 months ago | businessdesk.co.nz | David Chaplin |Cameron Bagrie |Tina Schirr |Pattrick Smellie

Every year, the much-anticipated Mercer's annual "Periodic Table" of investment returns reveals a different plot with the same perennial ending.In the latest edition released last week, for example, David Scobie, Mercer New Zealand principal, wraps up the investment lessons of calendar year 2024 as below:“The unpredictability of capital markets over the short term is a feature that tests investors repeatedly and resonates as we experience the heightened volatility of early 2025.
Ebos 'plugs key gap' with $115m NZ vet supplies acquisition

2 months ago | businessdesk.co.nz | Rebecca Stevenson |Gregor Thompson |Cameron Bagrie

Ebos' acquisition of pet medicine firm SVS plugs a key gap in its portfolio, Forsyth Barr analysts say. On Thursday night, the dual-listed animal and healthcare firm announced it would raise about $271 million and confirmed the SVS Veterinary Supplies deal.
A geo-strategic model is now front and centre

2 months ago | businessdesk.co.nz | Cameron Bagrie

We received the big bazooka of US tariffs, and markets have taken a hit for obvious reasons. Tariffs are bad for growth and will add to inflation. There is the real risk of a trade war and global recession.The writing has been on the wall for a while, and a sense of perspective is needed.