Chris Butler

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Articles

Risk Appetite Firms as Jobs Data Lifts Confidence and Dollar Extends Bounce

1 week ago | hedgethink.com | Chris Butler

The catalyst was a better-than-expected US non-farm payrolls report, which reassured investors that the initial economic impact from tariffs may be less damaging than feared. Markets also took comfort in signs of renewed momentum in trade negotiations, including a potential thaw between the US and China. US stocks have now erased their April losses, with the S&P 500 marking a nine-day winning streak, its longest since 2004.
Markets Cheer Trade Progress, But Dollar Still Lagging

2 weeks ago | hedgethink.com | Chris Butler

While no breakthroughs were confirmed in US-China talks, positive signals from other trade negotiations—notably with Japan, South Korea, India, and even Switzerland—helped bolster optimism. President Trump hinted that “many” trade deals could fall into place within a month, adding fuel to the recovery narrative. Despite the rebound in risk assets, US assets continue to show signs of hesitation.
Easter Calm Masks Underlying Market Fragility

3 weeks ago | hedgethink.com | Chris Butler

However, under the surface, risks remain elevated as Trump-led trade headlines continue to loom large over sentiment. While there was no major escalation, the threat of retaliatory action and tariff surprises kept traders cautious. The US Dollar attempted to stabilize after weeks of weakness, with the DXY index retreating 0.6% to close at 99.229, a critical support area that traders are closely watching.
Tariff Whiplash Leaves Dollar Reeling

4 weeks ago | hedgethink.com | Chris Butler

The White House’s shifting stance on trade policy left investors bewildered, with even administration insiders seemingly struggling to keep up. The result? Sharp moves across FX, bonds, and equities – and a clear message that confidence in US economic leadership is waning. The Dollar was the week’s biggest loser, despite rising yields and occasional risk-off stretches. The DXY index dropped 3% to close at 99.783, testing key support before bouncing slightly into the weekend.
Trade War Shockwaves Rock Global Markets

1 month ago | hedgethink.com | Chris Butler

The impact was immediate and severe: equities plunged, Treasury yields fell, and volatility surged. China’s swift retaliation added fuel to the fire, escalating rhetoric and raising fears that a full-scale global trade war is now underway. The tone has shifted from cautious optimism to outright concern. The DXY index dropped 1.1% to 102.892, reflecting both the market’s view that the US may suffer economically and a renewed appetite for diversification away from the Dollar.
Liberation Day Looms

1 month ago | hedgethink.com | Chris Butler

By Friday, the cracks were clear: equities sold off, yields fell, and Gold surged to fresh record highs. The flight to safety is now well underway, and markets are no longer willing to wait for clarity. While FX markets remained largely contained within prior-week ranges, sentiment clearly deteriorated. The US Dollar moved broadly sideways, with marginal changes despite slightly better-than-expected GDP and Core PCE data. The DXY closed at 104.011, just below the previous week’s level.
Global Pause Before the Next Push

1 month ago | hedgethink.com | Chris Butler

With key drivers such as Fed policy and tariff threats entering a period of wait-and-see, currency markets slipped into consolidation mode, mirroring the broader indecisiveness seen across asset classes. In the US, the Federal Reserve held rates steady, as expected, and reduced the pace of quantitative tightening – arguably the clearest signal yet that QT is nearing its end. The central bank also maintained its projection for two rate cuts later this year.
Global Pause Before the Next Push

1 month ago | tradersdna.com | Chris Butler

With key drivers such as Fed policy and tariff threats entering a period of wait-and-see, currency markets slipped into consolidation mode, mirroring the broader indecisiveness seen across asset classes. In the US, the Federal Reserve held rates steady, as expected, and reduced the pace of quantitative tightening – arguably the clearest signal yet that QT is nearing its end. The central bank also maintained its projection for two rate cuts later this year.
New Week of Consolidation

1 month ago | hedgethink.com | Chris Butler

While risk aversion deepened in US stock markets, the Dollar’s selloff slowed, and modest buying interest emerged. However, this stabilization appeared to be more of a pause in the broader downtrend rather than a true reversal in sentiment. Despite the temporary reprieve, uncertainty remains dominant as investors weigh the impact of escalating trade tensions on global growth.
Euro Where Have You Been!

2 months ago | hedgethink.com | Chris Butler

The Euro was the outstanding winner, driven by optimism around the “Coalition of the Willing” and the “ReArm Europe” initiative. These efforts reflect a structural shift towards greater fiscal expansion and defence spending, setting the stage for potential long-term resilience in European markets. Meanwhile, the US Dollar struggled amid persistent concerns over Washington’s inconsistent trade policy.