Chris Hanretty

Jul 3, 2024 | chrishanretty.co.uk | Chris Hanretty

At this point it might reasonably be objected that we do in fact know more than simply the Labour lead over the Conservatives and the fact that the election is being held under first-past-the-post. We know past support for each party in each seat from notional election results.

Jan 17, 2024 | journals.sagepub.com | Chris Hanretty |Tim Bale |Monica Poletti |Paul Webb

IntroductionMembers of political parties in consolidated democracies are often involved in candidate selection: the chance to choose leading exponents of one’s party is one of the key selective benefits of party membership. Although selection by party elites can be geographically centralised (Lundell, 2004: 30), selection by party members is typically selection by local party members.

May 24, 2023 | chrishanretty.co.uk | Chris Hanretty

I have tried to make these arguments to Peter in the past when he has asked questions about the Survation model, but they have not convinced him. In this blog post I’ll therefore try a different tack, and show how a simplified version of an MRP model gives estimates that start proportional but become more uniform the closer we get to the election. This model is so simple it can’t really be called an MRP model.