Christian E. Weller

1 month ago | forbes.com | Christian E. Weller

A massive jump in economic policy uncertainty, highlighted by President Donald Trump’s on-again-off-again tariffs and other policy back and forth, has characterized the first few months of his second term. Above average increases in economic policy uncertainty tend to precede slower increases in economic activity. And, the more than 140.2% of economic policy uncertainty from October 2024 to February 2025 certainly counts as an above average increase.

1 month ago | forbes.com | Christian E. Weller

Donald Trump has not ruled out that his onslaught of erratic tariff announcements, draconian and random cuts to the federal workforce and legally challenged government program stops could lead to a recession. The economy is already showing signs of slowing: less hiring and possibly rising inflation. Whether the economy will indeed slide into a recession is very much an open question.

1 month ago | forbes.com | Christian E. Weller

Economic policy uncertainty has surged since Donald Trump’s election. This can be bad, not just for the stock market, but also for business investments and for consumer spending, if the past is any indication.

2 months ago | forbes.com | Christian E. Weller

Republican members of the House of Representatives have taken the first step – a budget resolution – to cut taxes. The final bill will likely extend some of the regressive the tax cuts that Congress enacted under President Trump in 2017, also known as the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). The extension of expiring tax cuts would go to high-income households, who already sit on record high amounts of money that have not spurred innovation and growth.

Oct 30, 2024 | forbes.com | Christian E. Weller

Most economists who had to describe healthy, stable growth would end up largely describing today’s GDP numbers. The economy expanded at an annual inflation-adjusted rate of 2.8% in the third quarter of 2024, after expanding at 3.0% in the previous quarter. Outside of volatile inventory build ups, economic growth actually accelerated. Income growth from continued employment growth and wages outpacing prices is driving consumer spending.