Clem Chambers

United Kingdom

Contributor at Freelance

CEO @OBC_plc . Writes for @SeekingAlpha, @Forbes

Articles

Forbes JAPAN 公式サイト（フォーブスジャパン）

5 days ago | forbesjapan.com | Clem Chambers

インフレを特定するのは難しい。財布の中でそれを感じることはあっても、正確に測定するのは非常に難しい。筆者は以前、コンピューターゲームの草分け的な会社の一つを立ち上げたのだが、その準備に使ったマシンは、英Sinclair Research（シンクレア・リサーチ）製の「ZX Spectrum」だった。当時の価格は200ドルだった。いま、200ドルで買えるコンピューターは、それよりはるかにパワフルだ。つまり、価格は下落しなかったとしても、「1計算」あたりの価格は圧倒的に暴落したことになる。同じことはクルマにも当てはまる。筆者が1982年に購入したベースグレードのクルマの値段は、現在のベースグレードのクルマの店頭表示価格と比べれば、わずか20％にしかならない。だが、英国のインフレ率を考慮すると、33％になるはずだ。今日のクルマの性能がはるかに良くなったとはいえ、AからBへの移動という基本的な用途は変わらない。では、インフレ率は5倍になったのか、あるいは3倍程度だったのか？...
Forbes JAPAN 公式サイト（フォーブスジャパン）

6 days ago | forbesjapan.com | Clem Chambers

市場はいつも正しい、という決まり文句があるが、この結論に至るのに時間がかかることもある。極端なことが起こっている時（いまはまさにそんな時だ）、人はすぐに新たな状況に適応できないものだ。市場は人間で構成されているので、何が起こったのか、何が起こっているのかが理解され、それが株価に反映されるのにも、時間を要することがある。これに関して参考になるのは、精神科医エリザベス・キューブラー・ロスが提唱した「死の受容の5段階」だ。つまり、人は死にあたって「否認」「怒り」「取引」「抑うつ」「受容」という5つの段階を経るという説のことだ。 X（旧Twitter）の混沌をほんの少しのぞいてみるだけで、否認と怒りが渦巻いているのがわかる。「もしも」「仮に」「だとしたら」という、取引の声も増えてきている。筆者が見るかぎり、多くの人々は、今いったい何が起こっているのかを把握できていないだけでなく、現在の状況がもたらした、明白であからさまな帰結に順応できてもいないようだ。...
Gold, Guns, And The Market: What Rising Tensions Mean For Your Portfolio (XAUUSD:CUR)

1 week ago | seekingalpha.com | Clem Chambers

Apr. 17, 2025 11:32 PM ETSummaryI flagged LVMH on March 26th. Since then, it’s dropped sharply; proof that geopolitical tensions are biting and beginning to crush sectors such as luxury goods. Gold is the currency of conflict. Not crypto, not fiat—when the world gets dangerous, gold is the fallback. This isn’t about gold bugs or bunkers. It’s about strategic positioning—steel production, ships, and sovereign gold hoarding.
Gold At Its All-Time High: Is This The Top Or Just The Start?

1 week ago | forbes.com | Clem Chambers

Inflation is a hard thing to pin down. You feel it in your wallet, but measuring it accurately is very difficult. When I set out in business, I started one of the pioneering computer games companies. The machine that set the stage was the Sinclair ZX Spectrum, known as the Timex 2680 in the US. It was $200. Now, a $200 computer is infinitely more powerful, so while the price didn’t fall, the price per ‘compute’ absolutely crashed. The same goes for cars.
Why Gold Is Still Rising: The Currency Of War In An Age Of Global Tension

1 week ago | forbes.com | Clem Chambers

Assets need use cases. Those that capture the imagination but lack practical utility rarely retain long-term value. Gold does have use cases. It was once the go-to for flight capital and dentistry, though those roles have diminished. Today, gold still matters in electronics and in trinkets. People value it for historic and aesthetic reasons, but at $100 million per tonne, sentiment alone isn’t enough to sustain its price.
The Psychology Of A Stock Market Crash: Why Investors Are Still In Denial

2 weeks ago | forbes.com | Clem Chambers

The market is always right, so they say – but sometimes, it takes a while to come to its conclusion. In extreme times – and these are an example – it can take people time to adjust to the new circumstances. Since the market is made up of people, it also takes time to fully price in what has happened and what is happening. A model for this is Elisabeth Kübler-Ross’s Cycle of Grief: Denial, Anger, Bargaining, Depression, and Acceptance.
How To Trade The Crash 2025

2 weeks ago | forbes.com | Clem Chambers

I’m getting a lot of folks asking me what to do now the market has crashed. I don’t blame them. The signals – and the situation itself – are wildly unusual. A crash is generally accepted to be a drop of 25%. We have had that on the Nasdaq. There are further levels to crashes, and crudely, if you look at the Nasdaq now, they would be 15,000, 10,000, and 5,000. Another way to look at it: -25% and -33% can happen frequently, then -50% and -75% are progressively rarer.
The Big Market Crash Of 2025 Is Underway

2 weeks ago | forbes.com | Clem Chambers

It is easier to predict the past, and you will hear many doing it now and in the near future. However, I’ve been calling this crash here on Forbes for some time, and now the crash of 2025 is on deck. Here is the chart from my article March 20 compared with the chart today:As I write, it’s another 2% down in the pre-market. So did you get the whole memo? It’s a trifecta of bad news. Tariffs: These will raise prices, thus lowering American consumer buying power.
The Crash Of 2025: One Chart That Will Flash A Final Warning

4 weeks ago | seekingalpha.com | Clem Chambers

Mar. 26, 2025 4:38 PM ET, , , , , , , , , , SummaryLuxury goods suffer first in downturns. Watch LVMH's stock closely; a further drop would strongly indicate we are going into a global recession and a crash is underway. Gold and Bitcoin act as leading indicators for chronic and acute economic developments, respectively, signalling what's about to happen before news breaks. Defense stock movements were an early signal of shifting U.S. policy— leading indicators exist and should be hunted for.
The Crash Of 2025: One Chart That Will Flash A Final Warning

1 month ago | forbes.com | Clem Chambers

Before the current conflagration, I appeared on David Linn’s financial podcast and was asked what I expected from the new presidential administration. I said the only certainty was increased volatility, which meant a high possibility of either great outcomes or the opposite. While the markets are signaling bad news, it is difficult to predict the outcome in isolation because we are all far from the machinations that will drive it.