Colby Smith

"The US consumer never lets us down," John Williams of @NewYorkFed tells @flacqua. But some businesses are warning of a retreat The impact of tariffs has yet to show up in the economic data. That has left policymakers searching for clues elsewhere https://t.co/TNkLtct6uq

Forecasts for when the Fed will restart cuts are in a constant state of flux, whipsawing on every tariff twist or data release. What is starting to set in is that the Fed may be on hold for awhile longer, perhaps until September at the earliest https://t.co/exVlIeejqK @nytimes

Takeaways from the Fed meeting: - The Fed is not in a hurry to lower rates and is going to wait to see the economic effects from Trump's tariffs materialize before taking any action. With the economy still on solid footing and unemployment low, Powell made clear that there is

Powell reiterates that the Fed would face a "difficult judgement" if its goals of low inflation and a healthy labor market are in tension. They would focus on the distance from the goals and the speed to get back there, which will depend both on the data and forecasts

Powell says the Fed can't yet say "which way this will shake out" in terms of whether to be more worried about inflation or growth

Powell kicks off his press conference saying that the Fed is well positioned to respond in a "timely" way to economic developments

Fed holds rates steady as expected but sends a starker warning about the economy. It says uncertainty about the outlook has "increased further" and that the "risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen."

The Fed is still in wait-and-see mode as officials grapple with the economic fallout from Trump's tariffs. What is not yet clear is if the impact on inflation will be transitory or persistent, and how consumers will react. "It does raise a question about what the right medicine

RT @Brad_Setser: Five potential reasons why the tariffs didn't push up the dollar, confounding many economists (and much of the market)…

Unlike Trump's first trade war, the Fed doesn't have the "luxury" to lower rates to keep the expansion going as it did in 2019, says fmr Fed president Esther George. "I don’t think they can afford to do that right now."

Colby Smith @colbyLsmith

Economic concerns are mounting, but the Fed isn’t cutting rates proactively. "It’s too uncertain to be preemptive," says fmr adviser Ellen Meade. "The date for a cut is the time that the slowing of the economy outweighs, in their view, the overshoot in inflation." Officials

Economic concerns are mounting, but the Fed isn’t cutting rates proactively. "It’s too uncertain to be preemptive," says fmr adviser Ellen Meade. "The date for a cut is the time that the slowing of the economy outweighs, in their view, the overshoot in inflation." Officials

RT @arappeport: New: For the U.S. and China, the only talking is about whether to talk https://t.co/dJ4CuGHmiK

Traders in fed funds futures markets scaled back their expectations for cuts after the jobs report. They see much lower odds of a June reduction but continue to forecast a 25bp cut in July and at least two more this year https://t.co/FlFO6g9Chv @nytimes

The latest jobs report, which shows strong monthly payrolls growth and a steady unemployment rate, reinforces the Fed's stance that it can afford to be patient on rate cuts and can wait to gain more clarity on how Trump's tariffs will impact the economy before taking action

RT @MichaelRStrain: The @USChamber sounds the alarm about the effect of tariffs on small business, which are responsible for 1/3 of all imp…