Connor Lokar

2 months ago | hpac.com | Connor Lokar

by CONNOR LOKAR, Senior Forecaster, ITR EconomicsMarch 10, 2025 -- My macroeconomic perspective is that the tariffs are not going to tip the U.S. into recession. The numbers do not indicate that a recession is a reasonable expectation. Trade is simply not that large a percentage of U.S. GDP comparatively, and the US economy is the largest on the planet. The U.S. trade deficit in goods amounted to 3.1% of U.S. GDP in 2024. The U.S. is 26.3% of global GDP.