Cullen Roche

Encinitas

Author and Blogger at Pragmatic Capitalism

Founder & CIO @disciplinefunds 📊 | Author @pragcap 📖| PM of $DSCF 💰| Defined Duration Investing ⌛| Board at Cambria ETFs 💸

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Articles

3 Things - China Tariffs Update

1 day ago | seekingalpha.com | Cullen Roche

Apr. 23, 2025 11:36 AM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , SummaryWe got a pretty interesting set of comments on Tuesday evening from Donald Trump. Businesses want certainty about what prices will look like. So, if the effective tariff rate is going to be 7.5% then we need to get there.
An Autopsy of American Exceptionalism

3 days ago | pragcap.com | Cullen Roche

I’m writing this in a Parisian cafe in the year 2050. I’m doing a reverse Hemingway, trying to become a better writer as I get into my 70s while I do part-time consulting in what has, to my surprise, become the center of the western financial world. Unfortunately, my writing is also doing a reverse Hemingway, in terms of quality, not that it was ever close to begin with.
3 Things - Fed Independence, Bonds, Tariffs Endgame

3 days ago | seekingalpha.com | Cullen Roche

Apr. 20, 2025 11:45 PM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , SummaryThe biggest news of this past week was the potential for the President to fire employees of independent agencies. That would include Fed Chairman Powell. If we eliminate the independence of the Fed, then we’re much more likely to see a more procyclical overall policy.
Three Things – Weekend Reading

4 days ago | disciplinefunds.com | Cullen Roche

Here are some things I think I am thinking about. 1) Fed Independence. The biggest news of this past week was the potential for the President to fire employees of independent agencies. That would include Fed Chairman Powell. I have no idea how plausible this is, but it does appear like something that’s increasingly likely. And as I’ve been saying for a while now, I am not sure how much it matters anyhow because Powell is out in May of 2026 and Trump will replace him with a yes-man.
3 Things - What Is Happening With Tariffs, Bonds And Risk Profiles?

2 weeks ago | seekingalpha.com | Cullen Roche

Apr. 10, 2025 7:30 AM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , SummaryOn Wednesday we got a 90-day pause, and now the stock market has roared back to where it was last Thursday. I think what the stock market is saying is that it likes that Trump appears willing to reverse course on this.
3 Things - Tariffs, Of Course

2 weeks ago | seekingalpha.com | Cullen Roche

Apr. 08, 2025 11:05 AM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , SummaryMy baseline view on the sheer size of these tariffs is that they’re almost certainly recessionary if they remain in place. So the question is, how long will they remain in place and what would it take to get the White House to realize this is a bad policy? It’s looking like a stock market decline isn’t going to convince them.
Finding Certainty In A Sea Of Uncertainty

2 weeks ago | seekingalpha.com | Cullen Roche

Apr. 06, 2025 11:15 AM ETSummaryWe’re potentially on the verge of a significant and long-lasting shift in the global trade system we’ve constructed for over 40 years. This market and economy is going to scare a lot of people. This isn’t new. Without some short-term pain, there cannot be long term gains. So, what should you do (or not do) in environments like these? Well, by now we can all see the impacts of the tariff announcements.
Weekend Reading – How Did We Get Here?

2 weeks ago | disciplinefunds.com | Cullen Roche

Here are three things I think I am thinking about this weekend. 1) How Did We Get Here? I won’t bore you with more of the tariff debunking that I did last weekend. If you want to read that please go back and touch on each of the bullet points I covered. Tariffs are perhaps the most non-partisan issue in economics. It might be the only thing that Paul Krugman and Milton Friedman agreed on. But somehow, someway the narrative got hijacked in recent years. How did this happen?
3 Things: GDPNow, Tariffs 101, And Should Hedge Funds Hedge?

3 weeks ago | seekingalpha.com | Cullen Roche

SummaryWhen the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow crashed down to -2.8 % back in February, a lot of us looked at the data and said, 'This doesn’t add up.'Of all the silly discussions that I’ve had over the years regarding economics, I have to say that the tariff discussion is among the very silliest. The question of how much we should hedge is an eternally interesting one. After all, we’re all trying to get the highest possible return with the lowest possible risk.
Why Is International Investing Working Again?

4 weeks ago | seekingalpha.com | Cullen Roche

Mar. 26, 2025 5:25 PM ET, , , , , SummaryInternational investing is mostly a currency story. The reason I am a big advocate of global diversification is because it’s such an easy way to hedge the inevitable ups and downs of the domestic currency. Timing a huge secular macro shift is impossible, but one thing we know is that Donald Trump wants to make the US more competitive on the global trading stage. And a weaker dollar would be an obvious part of that.