D'arce McMillan

Saskatoon

Freelance Markets Columnist at The Western Producer

I am a freelance markets columnist for The Western Producer, Canada's largest agricultural newspaper. I have covered agriculture for 30 years. Posts are my own.

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Articles

Weather less than ideal in many wheat-growing regions

2 weeks ago | producer.com | D'arce McMillan

Weather issues are throwing into question forecasts for a record large global wheat crop this year, but wheat futures markets remain cautious. Minneapolis hard spring wheat futures rallied last week and closed at the highest level since late February, but gains in the heavily traded Chicago soft wheat contract were muted, unable to break through resistance.
Long-term forecasts for hot, dry summer are worrisome

3 weeks ago | producer.com | D'arce McMillan

It is spring, crops mostly are in the ground and it is a time of optimism, so I’m reluctant to talk about troubling long-term seasonal weather outlooks, but they exist, regardless of whether I talk about them. At the bottom of the column I’ll also touch on oil sector developments that might lead to lower crude oil prices this summer. Generally, weather models predict a growing season that is warmer and drier than normal through much of central North America.
Weather temporarily lifts wheat but damage not confirmed

1 month ago | producer.com | D'arce McMillan

Canada has the potential to post a new record for wheat exports this crop year, and the outlook for next year might look a little brighter as crop problems develop in other countries. However, there is no guarantee that the emerging problems will continue and, as always, it comes down to weather. Chicago wheat futures turned higher May 13-21, breaking a general downward trend since hitting a 2025 high in February.
Trade, biofuel policies continue to influence crop markets

1 month ago | producer.com | D'arce McMillan

Recent American trade and biofuel policy developments are moving agricultural markets, while producers on both sides of the 49th parallel hope forecasts for rain this week prove accurate. I’ll first summarize recent developments and later touch on an approach Ottawa might take in negotiating with China to end the tariffs on Canadian canola meal and oil, peas and pork.
Ag markets find new trade levels following tariff shocks

2 months ago | producer.com | D'arce McMillan

Uncertainty caused by tariffs remains the dominant force in global markets, but the initial shock and price gyrations are settling down. Further shake ups could be around the corner, but let’s look at how markets have reacted in the past few weeks since the tariff wars began.
Crop market depression starts to lighten, except canola

Feb 26, 2025 | producer.com | D'arce McMillan

Crop futures prices are rising, supported by ideas that supply might turn out tighter than expected. The gains provide welcome optimism to offset the worries generated by all the tariff and trade war talk coming out of the mouth of American president Donald Trump. From Jan. 1 to Feb. 21, Chicago May corn futures and Minneapolis spring wheat futures both rose slightly more than eight per cent.
Smaller canola crop raises price and rationing questions

Dec 11, 2024 | producer.com | D'arce McMillan

A disappointing canola harvest is in the bin, judging by the November Statistics Canada crop survey released last week, setting up a potential supply squeeze later this crop year. However, with the Chinese anti-dumping investigation hanging over the market as well as the many worries associated with the incoming Trump administration, it is impossible to make predictions. The November production report issued Dec.
Talking turkey about the actual cost of a holiday meal

Dec 4, 2024 | producer.com | D'arce McMillan

A recent news story about the cost of an American Thanksgiving meal that triggered a social media response was interesting in several ways. It highlighted the public’s continuing concern with food inflation as well as its misunderstanding of how news operations work. Granted, this was a social media squall, not a storm, but it was big enough to trend for a while on X, formerly known as Twitter.
Tariff war might again roil oilseed markets

Nov 27, 2024 | producer.com | D'arce McMillan

A report commissioned by the American Soybean Association and the U.S. National Corn Growers Association warns that a new trade war between the United States and China would cost American farmers while benefiting producers in Brazil and Argentina. Read Also Grim outlook for new crop SASKATOON — Analysts speaking at a recent GrainFox market outlook webinar must have left their rose-coloured glasses in the drawer… See Sean Pratt’s story on the report here.
U.S. policy shifts join weather, economics as market movers

Nov 20, 2024 | producer.com | D'arce McMillan

Crop market forecasting for the coming months has become more complicated as questions about American policy direction are added to the usual issues about weather and economic developments. Read Also Can Singapore be a plant protein partner? WINNIPEG — Canada may need a partner in southeast Asia to tap into booming demand for food, ingredients and protein… Donald Trump is busy selecting loyalists for his cabinet.