Dalga Khatinoglu

Azerbaijan

Dalga Khatinoglu, expert in Iran's energy & macroeconomics, researcher on energy in Azerbaijan, Central Asia, & Arab countries.

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Articles

Even Threatening to Close the Strait of Hormuz Could Be Suicidal for Iran

1 week ago | meforum.org | Dalga Khatinoglu

For more than two decades, the Islamic Republic has threatened repeatedly to close the Strait of Hormuz—relying on its proxy forces, exaggerating its military capabilities, and exploiting Arab states’ fear of its aggressive posture and international fears of oil market disruption. Tehran renewed such threats following Israel’s bombing campaign that began on June 13, 2025.
Confidential report details Iran's struggle to meet fuel demand

2 weeks ago | iranintl.com | Dalga Khatinoglu

A confidential report from Iran’s oil ministry appears to show a widening gap between domestic fuel production and consumption, highlighting growing pressure on the country’s energy infrastructure. According to the ministry’s confidential annual report obtained by Iran International, diesel consumption in March 2025—the final month of the Iranian calendar year—hit a record 146 million liters per day, exceeding national production by 30 million liters.
Iranians are accused of waste while struggling with shortages

2 weeks ago | iranintl.com | Dalga Khatinoglu

People in Iran are often accused of contributing to the country’s economic woes through wasteful habits—not just by officials, but by one another. But how much truth is there to these claims? People in Iran are often accused of contributing to the country’s economic woes through wasteful habits—not just by officials, but by one another. But how much truth is there to these claims?
Iran's regional energy clout wanes as buyers turn elsewhere

3 weeks ago | iranintl.com | Dalga Khatinoglu

Iran’s ambition to serve as a regional energy hub is faltering, with key neighbors losing confidence in Tehran’s ability to fulfil its commitments and shifting to alternative suppliers. Turkey, long a major customer, imported over 5 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States in the first quarter of 2025, according to Turkey’s Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EMRA). That’s nearly the same volume as in all of 2024—which itself marked a 38% jump from 2023.
Reviving Syria’s Economy Can Push It Toward the Western-Leaning, Moderate Arab Bloc

3 weeks ago | meforum.org | Dalga Khatinoglu

Grappling with up to 20 hours of daily blackouts, Syrians may now see new hope with a $7 billion agreement signed by companies from Turkey, Qatar, and the United States to address the country’s electricity crisis. If implemented successfully, [a new] agreement could restore Syria’s electricity production to pre-civil war levels within two years.
Deepening Energy Crisis in Iran Sparks Protests

1 month ago | meforum.org | Dalga Khatinoglu

The Iranian government long has used cheap, subsidized energy to curry favor with a dissatisfied population. That strategy now brings the Islamic Republic to the brink of a crisis from which it may not recover. Iran’s ongoing energy crisis now triggers protests among various economic sectors, while ordinary citizens criticize the government’s failure to manage electricity and gas shortages.
Iran wastes as much gas as Spain uses in a year

1 month ago | iranintl.com | Dalga Khatinoglu

While suffering from severe gas shortages, Iran wastes a staggering volume of natural gas during production and transmission—equal to Spain’s annual consumption or about half of what Turkey or Italy use each year. In regional markets, the wasted gas would be worth over $10 billion per year. It amounts to 40% of the gas used annually by Iranian households. This massive loss stems from underinvestment in gas recovery infrastructure at oil fields and an aging transmission network.
Iran's energy exports rise as domestic grid falters

1 month ago | iranintl.com | Dalga Khatinoglu

Despite worsening energy shortages at home, Iran has increased its gas and electricity exports over the past year, official data shows. The country has faced persistent shortfalls in both electricity and natural gas since early 2024. Many industries have been affected and may even come to halt, Iranian minister for industry Mohammad Atabak warned on Thursday.
Why Qatar Cozies up to Iran’s Clerical Regime

1 month ago | meforum.org | Dalga Khatinoglu |Mardo Soghom

During his Middle East tour, President Donald Trump remarked that Tehran should “say a big thank you” to Qatar’s emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, who personally urged Trump not to attack Iran. Why is Qatar so supportive of the Islamic Republic, while most of its Arab neighbors are wary of, if not outright hostile toward, Tehran—especially given Iran’s continued meddling across the Arab world?
Iran set for soaring inflation and near-zero growth, grim IMF outlook finds

1 month ago | iranintl.com | Dalga Khatinoglu

Iran is facing one of its bleakest economic outlooks in years, data published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) suggests, with inflation surging, fiscal deficit growing and nominal economy shrinking—all indicators of potential long-term instability. Iran’s real GDP is set to grow by just 0.3% in 2025, the IMF's Regional Economic Outlook for the Middle East and Central Asia published this month projected. That’s a sharp fall in its October 2023 estimate for this year of 3%.