Damir Tokic

United States

Writer at Freelance

Professor, Researcher, Commodity Trading Advisor, Songwriter

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Articles

S&P 500: Stagflation To Burst The Bubble (NYSEARCA:SPY)

1 day ago | seekingalpha.com | Damir Tokic

Jun. 27, 2025 3:47 AM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , SummaryThe S&P 500 is in a bubble, trading at extreme valuations with a Shiller PE above 37, which is just below the 2000 dot-come levels. The recent Fed's SEP suggests that stagflation is a major risk in 2025, and possibly in 2026. The recent bounce in the S&P500 was due to multiple expansion, with significant downgrade to 2025 earnings growth, in face of rising stagflationary risks, which supports the bubble thesis.
Macro Update: Ceasefire, Truce, It's Fine As Long As The Data Holds

3 days ago | seekingalpha.com | Damir Tokic

Jun. 24, 2025 1:05 PM ET, , , , , SummaryThe markets are currently waiting for the first signs of stagflation, which is expected given the current policies in place and the unfolding events. The Israel-Iran ceasefire is likely only temporary as all sides evaluate the damage from the recent bombings on Iran's nuclear facilities. The US-China trade truce is temporary, and there are no signs of progress in trade negotiations with other countries.
Brace For $150/Barrel Oil (Commodity:CL1:COM)

1 week ago | seekingalpha.com | Damir Tokic

Jun. 20, 2025 9:12 AM ET, , , , , , , SummaryThe last effort of negotiations with Iran likely to fail, and the US is likely to enter the war by bombing the Fordow nuclear site. Iran is likely to retaliate by targeting regional energy infrastructure and blocking the Strait of Hormuz. Thus, the price of crude oil is likely to spike up to $150/barrel as the situation unfolds. Deal Or No Deal?
Fed's Hawkish Turn: "Meaningful Inflation Expected This Summer" (SP500)

1 week ago | seekingalpha.com | Damir Tokic

Jun. 18, 2025 6:30 PM ET, , SummaryThe Fed's stagflation prediction for 2025 intensified at the June meeting, and it's expected to spread to 2026. Powell expects a "meaningful" inflation this summer, and the risk to inflation appears to be higher than the risk to growth, and that's hawkish. The S&P500 bubble is likely to burst with the first signs of stagflation.
Macro Update: Troubles Brewing On All Fronts

1 week ago | seekingalpha.com | Damir Tokic

Jun. 16, 2025 9:41 AM ET, , , , , , SummaryThe net effect of all policies and events is expected to produce stagflation. The cracks in the labor market are showing, while inflation is still not reflecting the policies in-place. The Israel-Iran war is the first major event that could by itself produce a stagflationary shock. Trade negotiations appear to be stalling, while the US-China "deal" is just a temporary truce.
The Fed Preview: Powell Should Worry About 'Sell America' (DXY)

2 weeks ago | seekingalpha.com | Damir Tokic

Jun. 13, 2025 9:16 AM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , SummaryThe Fed is likely to keep the Federal Funds rate unchanged in June, and continue to signal two cuts in 2025, as the macro uncertainty remains high. However, the Fed is facing immense political pressure to cut interest rates, and if the Fed signals a slight dovish turn, the US Dollar could sharply depreciate.
The AI Bubble: Advanced AI Faces A "Complete Accuracy Collapse" (SP500)

2 weeks ago | seekingalpha.com | Damir Tokic

Jun. 12, 2025 10:01 AM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , SummaryApple's study finds that advanced AI reasoning LRM models face a "complete accuracy collapse" with more complex tasks, which suggests that AGI is unreachable. Thus, the massive Gen AI capex is likely mostly a wasted investment, which should burst the Gen AI bubble. The S&P 500 is heavily weighted by the AI related tech mega-caps, thus the S&P 500 bubble is likely to burst as well.
Macro Weekly: Calm Before Storm

2 weeks ago | seekingalpha.com | Damir Tokic

Jun. 09, 2025 6:41 AM ET, , , , , SummaryCurrent policies/events—tariffs, restrictive immigration, DOGE austerity, and resumed student loan payments—are stagflationary, likely causing higher inflation and slower growth. Additional tariffs and the 'Big Beautiful Bill' under consideration would further boost inflation and dampen economic growth, reinforcing stagflation risks.
May CPI Preview: Can You Even Trust The Data? (SP500)

3 weeks ago | seekingalpha.com | Damir Tokic

Jun. 06, 2025 1:25 PM ET, , , , , , , , , , SummaryCore CPI inflation is expected to increase in May by 0.3%, which would push the annual core inflation to 3%. Core CPI could spike to 3.5-4% by the end of 2025, due to tariffs in hiring freeze at place, and additional tariffs likely imposed. However, economists are concerned that CPI data is not as accurate due to the hiring freeze at BLS; which means investors could be "flying blind" here.
May Labor Market Report: Likely The Last Good One (SP500)

3 weeks ago | seekingalpha.com | Damir Tokic

Jun. 04, 2025 8:30 AM ET, , , , SummaryMay's labor report is expected to show 130K new jobs, steady 4.2% unemployment, and 0.3% wage growth, signaling a solid labor market. However, the official data is lagging, not yet reflecting the policies in place; thus the labor market is weaker than what the data shows, and it will continue to weaken. Small stocks are overvalued, despite underperformance, facing a stagflationary environment.