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Dan Su

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Articles

  • Dollarama Earnings: New Distribution Center Speeds Expansion in Western Canada

    Dec 5, 2024 | morningstar.ca | Dan Su

    Key Morningstar Metrics for DollaramaFair Value Estimate: C$106.00Morningstar Rating: 1 starEconomic Moat: NarrowMorningstar Uncertainty Rating: MediumWe are encouraged by Dollarama’s DOL announcement that it will build a new distribution center in Calgary by fiscal 2028. This should speed up store expansion in underpenetrated Western Canada and ease reliance on the traditional strongholds of Quebec and Ontario, where we see risks of saturation after 30 years of growth.

  • Why We Think Dollarama Stock Is Expensive

    Nov 25, 2024 | morningstar.ca | Dan Su

    We initiate coverage on Canadian dollar store chain Dollarama with a narrow economic moat rating based on the retailer’s intangible assets as well as cost advantages from its sourcing and distribution scale. Our fair value estimate stands at C$106 per share, which implies 16 times enterprise value to 2026 adjusted EBITDA. Shares look expensive trading at a 39% premium to our intrinsic valuation.

  • Keurig Dr Pepper Holds Ground in Soda, but Coffee Competition Tempers Our Conviction on Its Edge

    Nov 25, 2024 | morningstar.com | Dan Su

    We expect Keurig Dr Pepper to generate excess investment returns aided by intangible assets and scale benefits in its soft drink portfolio and entrenched retail and brand partner relationships in its coffee business for the next 10 years and thus award it a narrow economic moat rating.

  • Energy Drink Demand Eases and Competition Intensifies as Celsius Ramps Up Brand Focus

    Nov 15, 2024 | morningstar.com | Dan Su |Ari Felhandler

    Celsius has amassed impressive volume share gains in the North American functional and reduced sugar energy drink category in recent years, surpassing $1.3 billion in sales in 2023 from just $75 million in 2019.

  • Puig Poised to Ride Premiumization Tailwinds, but Moat Elusive, Given Narrow Fragrance Focus

    Oct 30, 2024 | morningstar.com | Dan Su

    We think chair and CEO Marc Puig has done a commendable job sharpening Puig’s premium focus and expanding its brand collection through acquisitions, thus positioning the small beauty product maker well to benefit from premiumization trends globally. That said, we’re not convinced Puig has carved out an economic moat, given its lack of brand intangibles and small scale relative to moaty peers L'Oréal and Estée Lauder.

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