Daniel Brumberg

Washington, D.C., United States

Non-resident Senior Fellow at Arab Center Washington DC

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Articles

Can Trump wait for a deal with Iran?

3 weeks ago | responsiblestatecraft.org | Daniel Brumberg

While Donald Trump has repeatedly bragged that he can end international conflicts in days, he is clearly frustrated that global leaders are not bending to his will. Only last week, he said that he is “angry” that Moscow has not offered a Ukraine deal and that he might impose secondary “tariffs” on Russian oil sales. He also warned that if Iran doesn’t “make a deal, there will be bombing.”This lashing out is not part of some grand “madman” strategy.
Trump’s Impulse-Driven Middle East Policy Creates Dangers and Opportunities

4 weeks ago | arabcenterdc.org | Daniel Brumberg

A recent report by a pro-Israel think tank in Washington cautions against making any deal with Iran that does not provide for the total dismantlement of Tehran’s nuclear enrichment program. The authors’ apparent concern that Trump might favor some kind of actual compromise with the Islamic Republic is not entirely far-fetched.
The Gaza War and the Future of Democracy in the United States and Israel

2 months ago | arabcenterdc.org | Daniel Brumberg

In a way that few could have predicted a few short weeks ago, the fate of democracy in the United States (and in some ways Israel) has now been irrevocably tied to the fate of the Palestinians. For by insisting that two million Palestinians must vacate Gaza and never return (a war crime), US President Donald Trump has displayed his total contempt not only for the rule of law but also for the lives of other human beings.
Trump Will Not Stop Israel from Snatching Defeat from the Jaws of Victory

Jan 24, 2025 | arabcenterdc.org | Daniel Brumberg

Several observers of the Middle East have suggested that President Donald Trump’s “transactional” instincts could impel him to push for a wider Palestinian-Israeli deal, one that might be cemented by diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. The rush to credit Trump with playing a decisive role in pushing Hamas and Israel to secure the January 19 cease fire underscores this belief.
How Will 2025 Be Different in the Middle East? Perspectives on the New Year

Jan 15, 2025 | arabcenterdc.org | Khalil E. Jahshan |Daniel Brumberg |Dana El Kurd |Imad K. Harb

The monumental events that took place in the Middle East in 2024 augur radical changes in the region’s geopolitical environment. Israel’s ongoing genocidal war on Gaza, its continued operations in southern Lebanon despite a negotiated ceasefire, and its illegal territorial expansion at the expense of Syria have helped erode international law as a guarantor of state sovereignty, peace, and security.
Iran nach Assads Sturz: Reformer wittern ihre Chance

Dec 17, 2024 | telepolis.de | Daniel Brumberg

Irans Reformer sehen nach Assads Sturz neue Chancen. Diplomatie mit den USA könnte gestärkt werden – doch wie wird Trump reagieren? Ein Gastbeitrag. Für den Iran ist der Sturz von Syriens Baschar al-Assad (und dem, was von seinem Regime übrig geblieben ist) sowie die Entscheidung Moskaus, seinen wichtigsten Verbündeten im Nahen Osten im Stich zu lassen, eine strategische Katastrophe. Anzeige Irans Widerstandsstrategie basierte auf der Allianz mit Assad.
Is Assad's fall good for Iran's reformists?

Dec 11, 2024 | responsiblestatecraft.org | Daniel Brumberg

For Iran, the fall of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad and what was left of his regime — together with Moscow’s decision to throw its leading Middle East ally to the winds — represents a strategic calamity. Iran’s resistance strategy rested on its alliance with Assad. To make matters worse, Iran’s leaders fear that Assad will be replaced with what they readily call “terrorists.” In this sense, the perception in Iran of the potential threat posed by new rulers in Syria echoes the view of U.S. policymakers.
Trump and Company Return to the Folly of “Maximum Pressure” on Iran

Dec 5, 2024 | arabcenterdc.org | Daniel Brumberg

When it comes to US Iran policy, simple yet profound realities merit repeating. One of these is that economic sanctions are a tactic, not a strategy. Indeed, unless linked to a clear and feasible goal, they are unlikely to produce the intended outcome.
Trump’s Middle East Team Will Have to Deal with His Unpredictability and Narcissism

Nov 8, 2024 | arabcenterdc.org | Daniel Brumberg

It is very hard to predict the foreign policy that president-elect Donald Trump will pursue because he is deeply and pathologically unpredictable. On both the domestic and foreign policy fronts, his policies are first and foremost an expression of—and channel for—his deeply narcissistic personality. There is little in the way of any kind of strategic sensibility or vision at work when he makes any decision.
One Year After October 7: Israel Descends into Endless War

Oct 11, 2024 | arabcenterdc.org | Daniel Brumberg

Among the many moments described in the Washington Post’s recent article on the Biden administration’s failed efforts to secure a ceasefire in Gaza, one stands out.