-
Dec 11, 2024 | 
lowyinstitute.org | Daniel Flitton
Sam Roggeveen confidently declares “Australia effectively closes off any possibility of Chinese military basing” in the Pacific with deals such as the Nauru and Tuvalu treaties. And this seems to make intuitive sense. These agreements are being lauded as giving Australia an effective veto over the security relationship for those countries. But rather than an “end” to the game, these moves could equally be read as upping the stakes.
-
Dec 3, 2024 | 
lowyinstitute.org | Daniel Flitton
I confess to harbouring a nerdish streak about foreign policy matters, which has kept me occupied now for 25 years. But unlike Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles, who boasts an impressive collection of snow globes drawn from travels around the world, souvenirs and keepsakes are not really my thing. Or so I thought. Having traipsed here and there as a reporter, think-tanker, university researcher, and intelligence analyst, I’ve evidently picked up a few.
-
Nov 26, 2024 | 
lowyinstitute.org | Daniel Flitton
A conceit underpins so much discussion in the realm of international policy. Politicians and analysts alike are far more comfortable talking about growing dangers or global complexity rather than doing anything about it. Easier to commission another white paper or a strategic assessment and debate the likely trends unfolding over the next 20 years than to be held accountable for actions taken in the present.
-
Nov 20, 2024 | 
lowyinstitute.org | Daniel Flitton
New starters to the work of intelligence analysis are warned about the danger from “invisible cats”. The circular logic was brilliantly captured by the author C.S Lewis. “If there were an invisible cat in that chair, the chair would look empty,” he reasoned. “But the chair does look empty; therefore there is an invisible cat in it.”Most infamously, this trap caught intelligence analysts studying Iraq’s WMD program. The absence of evidence was taken as proof it was so well hidden.
-
Nov 6, 2024 | 
lowyinstitute.org | Daniel Flitton
Credit to Penny Wong’s discipline as a media performer. Across an extraordinarily busy morning of seven interviews on television, radio and at a doorstop outside parliament, Wong faced a near identical barrage of questions about the Australian government’s reaction to Donald Trump’s comeback campaign. And Wong gave variations on the same answers in each, as if played on repeat. Has the PM spoken to Mr Trump? Did you need Greg Norman’s help to get in touch?
-
Nov 6, 2024 | 
lowyinstitute.org | Daniel Flitton
To the victor goes the spoils. Donald Trump has used this old expression before, and, after winning back the US presidency, he’ll rely on the same sentiment. Trump has pledged to repay his opponents, bristling at the “big steal” that he claims cost him office in 2020 and the criminal convictions since. No concerns about age, conspiracy, prejudice or competency have kept a majority of Americans from wanting him to win again. What to make of the result?
-
Oct 14, 2024 | 
lowyinstitute.org | Daniel Flitton
Prominent US commentator Fareed Zakaria made a bold claim over the weekend. “Taken together”, he said, pointing to spiralling tensions in the Middle East, a raging war in Ukraine, and a dangerous new dynamic in Asia, “they define the most dangerous period internationally since the end of the Cold War.”We are now in the most dangerous moment internationally since the end of the Cold War. My take: pic.twitter.com/WeOS5g37cI— Fareed Zakaria (@FareedZakaria) October 13, 2024It sounds portentous.
-
Oct 8, 2024 | 
lowyinstitute.org | Daniel Flitton
“The unresolved tension at the core of Australia’s strategic policy” makes for an intriguing headline in today’s Australian Financial Review, and the op-ed by former foreign affairs department boss Peter Varghese doesn’t disappoint. Last night, I heard Varghese deliver the speech the op-ed is based upon, and as always when listening to someone deliver remarks, the points of emphasis are as fascinating.
-
Sep 24, 2024 | 
realcleardefense.com | Daniel Flitton
A practical agenda amounts to a fine aim. But suchdetails don’t demand the scrutiny of busy leaders. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese was asked today why he is skipping the UN leaders’ summit in New York next week when he is already in the United States for a meeting of the Quad. “I have prioritised the visits that I have to make,” Albanese said. But what makes a gathering of the Quad a priority, right now? I’ve asked that question in a column published this week in The Hindu. My answer?
-
Sep 20, 2024 | 
lowyinstitute.org | Daniel Flitton
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese was asked today why he is skipping the UN leader’s summit in New York next week when he is already in the United States for meeting of the Quad. “I have prioritised the visits that I have to make,” Albanese said. But what makes a gathering of the Quad a priority, right now? I’ve asked that question in a column published this week in The Hindu. My answer? There is no compelling reason for the countries to meet at this moment, at least at the leadership level.
