David Llewellyn-Smith

Australia, Melbourne

Founding Publisher and Editor at MacroBusiness

David is the founding publisher and editor for @Macro_business, Chief Strategist at @NucleusWealth & former editor-in-chief of The Diplomat magazine

Articles

Dutton's gas plan must be bipartisan

1 week ago | macrobusiness.com.au | David Llewellyn-Smith

So says Labor legend Jenny George. The Australian. Regular warnings about gas shortages in Victoria are troubling. Despite its opposition to fossil fuels and having the highest renewables targets, Victoria is considering importing gas, underwritten by the public, at an estimated cost upwards of $20 a gigajoule. It makes no sense. Market failure is the consequence of the Gillard government’s rejection of a gas reservation scheme in 2012.
Iron ore dances on a pin

1 week ago | macrobusiness.com.au | David Llewellyn-Smith

The ferrous market is not strong. Data is all over the place. We’ve had strong Chinese credit, but much of it is debt swaps with only marginal growth impact. Goldman. March total social financing (TSF) flows and new RMB loans came in above market expectations, mainly due to strong expansion of short-term corporate loans.
Markets flushed

1 week ago | macrobusiness.com.au | David Llewellyn-Smith

The Market Ear on the great flush. No one’s inPositioning is wrecked, volatility just snapped lower, and risk appetite has fallen off a cliff. But with buybacks set to return, vol-control exhaustion kicking in, and sentiment at extreme lows, the stage might be quietly set for a rebound no one’s ready for. Zooming outSPX weekly chart bounced nicely on the long term trend line…AdvertisementRefinitivVIX – “green shoots”?
Australian dollar turns bipolar maniac

1 week ago | macrobusiness.com.au | David Llewellyn-Smith

DXY is at critical support. AUD is a bipolar maniac. Concrete boots are hanging in. Gold and oil came off. AdvertisementThe copper market is wrecked. Mining bear market rock solid. EM bounce. AdvertisementJunk off the worst. Yields eased, doubtless on the Fed’s calming words Friday. Stocks firmed. AdvertisementNow what? DXY is unhinged from Treasuries. While EUR is unhinged from bunds.
Bullock is a ditherer

2 weeks ago | macrobusiness.com.au | David Llewellyn-Smith

This is not what a central bank governor should say as the world falls apart. Inevitably, there will be a period of uncertainty and adjustment as countries respond to the ongoing tariff announcements by the United States administration. It will take some time to see how all of this plays out and the added unpredictability means we need to be patient as we work through how all of this could affect demand and supply globally.
Safe havens torn apart

2 weeks ago | macrobusiness.com.au | David Llewellyn-Smith

The Market Ear on historical movements in safe havens. Safe? US 30 year closing at another new recent high…and the dollar moving in the totally opposite direction. Big stuff going on under the surface. How safe is safe? The full text of this article is available to MacroBusiness subscribers$1 for your first month, then:Cancel at any time through our billing provider, StripeDavid Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super.
Australian dollar roars amid American chaos

2 weeks ago | macrobusiness.com.au | David Llewellyn-Smith

DXY is a falling meteor of death. This isn’t going to help tariff inflation. EUR is breaking out. AUD blasted higher. Even concrete boots rose. AdvertisementOil is down. Gold could do anything here. Commdos reflated a touch. Big miners did not. AdvertisementEM stocks did not. Junk is falling away again, especially EM. As the US long-end jackknifes. AdvertisementAnd stocks reverse down. The only market you should be watching is US Treasuries and whether or not they are going to stabilise.
The crash up

2 weeks ago | macrobusiness.com.au | David Llewellyn-Smith

The Market Ear on the crash up. Huge in SPXSPX futures rate of change (1day). The full text of this article is available to MacroBusiness subscribers$1 for your first month, then:Cancel at any time through our billing provider, StripeDavid Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
Australian dollar goes mad

2 weeks ago | macrobusiness.com.au | David Llewellyn-Smith

DXY was stable. AUD through the roof. Concrete boots now. Oil and gold rally. AdvertisementCopper is the loon metal. Others dour. Big miners stuffed. EM pumped. AdvertisementCredit stress gone. But yields up. Stocks to the moon!AdvertisementAll markets are now the plaything of the Orange Madman. Bloomberg. President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on higher tariffs that hit dozens of trade partners after midnight, while raising duties on China to 125%.
How devastating stock market crash will end

2 weeks ago | news.com.au | David Llewellyn-Smith

I love the smell of a market crash in the morning. It braces the senses like a thousand espressos mainlined into your brain. The beauty of yesterday’s crash, which takes most major indices into bear market territory (-20 per cent), is that it is actually three combined crashes running simultaneously. Bracing indeed. Crash oneCrash one is the end of the artificial intelligence (AI) bubble.