David SMith

4 days ago | thetimes.com | David SMith |David Smith

Something curious and rather unexpected is happening. Two prominent surveys of UK business confidence, published in recent days, show that optimism is rising strongly. At a time when firms have just been clobbered with a big increase in national insurance (NI), that is something of a surprise. Yet, sure enough, Lloyds Bank’s business barometer showed an 11-point rise in May to its highest level for nine months, with optimism about the economy up by 16 points.

1 week ago | thetimes.com | David SMith |David Smith

You will probably be aware that in ten days’ time, on June 11, the government will publish its comprehensive spending review, the first under Rachel Reeves’s chancellorship. By next weekend, there will be an avalanche of stories about the review, so I thought I would get in now. For economists, the spending review is a bit like a whodunnit in which you already know most of the ending.

1 week ago | thetimes.com | David SMith |David Smith

Gilts are UK government bonds, so-called because their certificates once had gold edges. They are issued by the government, via the Debt Management Office, to fund government borrowing. The problem at the moment is that the market interest rate, or yield, has increased, particularly for long-dated gilts. Why does this matter? The higher that gilt yields go, the more the government must ultimately pay in debt interest.

1 week ago | thetimes.com | David SMith |David Smith

There was a time when Ford's pay negotiations grabbed the attention of government ministers, the Treasury, and businesses and trade union members across the country. What the carmaker's management and the unions agreed set the tone for wage rises in the economy in general. It was the bellwether pay award. When management and the unions could not agree, as happened in 1978, it also set the tone for what usually turned out to be rocky times for industrial relations.

2 weeks ago | thetimes.com | David SMith |David Smith