Dean Baker

Utah

Senior economist at the Center for Economic &Policy Research (@ceprdc). Blog-- Beat the Press (@beat_the_press) Tweets are my own views. @deanbaker13.bsky.socia

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Articles

Trump’s Tariffs and Deportations Show Early Economic Impact, But Data Lags

5 days ago | cepr.net | Data Bytes |Dean Baker |Hayley Brown |Algernon Austin

Many of us have been following the inflation data closely for evidence of Trump’s tariffs. Along with most other economists I have been somewhat surprised that we haven’t seen more evidence to date. One thing we can say based on the evidence, is that exporters are not eating the tariffs, as Trump promised. The data on import prices, which do not include the tariffs paid on goods, shows non-fuel import prices rose in both April and May.
Don’t Buy the Scare About Social Security: We Will Get Our Benefits Unless Republican Politicians Don’t Want Us To

6 days ago | cepr.net | Data Bytes |Dean Baker |Peter Hart

The release of the 2025 Social Security Trustees Report led to lots of hyperventilating in the media as well as dire warnings about the program facing insolvency. While people can earn a good living pushing scare stories on Social Security, they have little basis in reality. To be clear, the most recent trustees report does show the program facing a shortfall so that in nine years it will not be able to pay full scheduled benefits. But it is important to get a clear picture of what this means.
Crypto and Deficits

1 week ago | cepr.net | Data Bytes |Dean Baker |Algernon Austin

The Republicans, together with a number of corrupt Democrats, seem likely to get their crypto bill through the Senate. Perhaps this handout to the rich and sleazy can’t be stopped but we should at least be clear about what is going on. Crypto has been around for close to two decades. Despite the grand promises of the early proselytizers, no one has come up with a clear case for its use other than for facilitating illegal transactions.
Elon Musk Could Apologize to Donald Trump, but Not to the American People: Inside the MAGA Mind

2 weeks ago | cepr.net | Data Bytes |Dean Baker |Matt Sedlar |Peter Hart

Elon Musk put his tail between his legs and apologized to Donald Trump. In a tweet on X, Musk said, “I regret some of my posts about President @realDonaldTrump last week. They went too far.”For those who missed it, Musk said that Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” was a complete disaster. He also said that Trump was withholding the full release of the Epstein files because he was in them.
Workers Most Likely to Lose Medicaid Can't Rely on Employer-Based Coverage

2 weeks ago | cepr.net | Data Bytes |Emma Curchin |Dean Baker |Matt Sedlar

In a recent CNBC interview, Sen. James Lankford (R-OK) said the people who lose Medicaid coverage under the Republican-backed “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” will merely transition to employer-sponsored health care: “It’s not kicking people off Medicaid. It’s transitioning from Medicaid to employer-provided health care.
Job Growth Healthy in May, as Unemployment Holds Steady at 4.2 Percent

3 weeks ago | cepr.net | Data Bytes |Dean Baker |Matt Sedlar |Sylvia A. Allegretto

The rate of job growth slowed somewhat in May, as the economy created 139,000 new jobs. The prior two months’ numbers were revised down by 95,000, bringing the three-month average to 135,000 jobs. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2 percent, keeping the unemployment rate in the narrow range between 4.0 percent and 4.2 percent that it has been in since last May. Healthcare Adds 62,200 Jobs, Again Leading GrowthThe healthcare sector has led employment growth throughout the recovery.
Life Among the Levees: A Historical Analysis of Community Adaptation in Lafourche Parish, Louisiana

3 weeks ago | cepr.net | Data Bytes |Matt Sedlar |Dean Baker |Madison Belo

IntroductionThe story of Southern Louisiana’s relationship with the Mississippi River — both the good and the bad — goes back to pre-colonial times. The fertile floodplains around the Mississippi River helped indigenous people thrive for centuries, shaping their cultures and lifestyles. But elevation was also key to survival. The river posed a significant threat; its floods and shifting courses could destroy settlements and disrupt established community life (Mehta & Rodning, 2022).
Countering Tax-Free Overtime: Double the Wage Premium

3 weeks ago | cepr.net | Data Bytes |Dean Baker |Sylvia A. Allegretto |Algernon Austin

Donald Trump’s campaign promise to make overtime pay tax-free seems to have left Democrats looking like deer caught in the headlights. It looks like a pro-worker measure, even though it is bad from many perspectives. It actually should not be hard for progressives to think their way out of this one. It just requires going back to the original rationale for the Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA) in 1937, which set the length of the normal workweek at 40 hours.
Job Openings in Manufacturing Fall to Lowest Level Since the Pandemic

3 weeks ago | cepr.net | Data Bytes |Dean Baker |Sylvia A. Allegretto

Donald Trump has placed a high priority on getting back manufacturing jobs. This is ostensibly the point of the tariffs he imposes before he takes them back. As many of us have pointed out, the tariff route is not necessarily a clever strategy. Many of the items we import are inputs into manufacturing in other sectors. For example, the big beautiful 50 percent tariff that Trump announced last week on imported steel is in effect a 50 percent tax on the steel that U.S. automakers put into their cars.
My Abundance Agenda

3 weeks ago | cepr.net | Data Bytes |Dean Baker |Julie Yixia Cai |Emma Curchin

Since “abundance” is apparently the in-thing, I thought I should get in on the act. At the onset, I will admit I don’t have much new to offer to those familiar with my writings, but sometimes a repackaging is useful. I have my usual favorites:Patent and copyright monopolies,The bloated financial sector,The corrupt corporate governance structure,Protection for doctors and other highly paid professionals.