Diana Mousina

2 months ago | linkedin.com | Diana Mousina

Key points The level of the unemployment rate consistent with “full employment” in Australia has fallen. This means that the unemployment rate may not rise too much further, but wages growth will still slow. This is good news for inflation and means the RBA can start the rate cutting cycle, even if the labour market is holding up. Introduction The strength of the Australian labour market in 2024 was a surprise to most economists, including the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

Jan 15, 2025 | livewiremarkets.com | Diana Mousina

The Econosights team have looked back at the year that was in markets and cast our eye over what the New Year may hold for investors. We have put together a “Wishlist” for 2025 of the top five things we hope will happen. US implements higher tariffs on trading partners, but there is no major global trade “war”It is clear that US tariffs on its global trade partners are going to increase in 2025 with the incoming Trump administration.

Dec 9, 2024 | livewiremarkets.com | Diana Mousina

A tariff is a tax that a country implements on its imported goods. The mechanics of tariffs are: imported items increase in price, the importer passes the increase in price down the supply chain either completely or in part (therefore absorbing the cost increase) with consumer prices usually increasing. The increase in price for consumers is meant to reduce the demand for this item, and consumers may substitute this foreign-made good for a domestically produced item, reducing reliance on imports.

Aug 14, 2024 | livewiremarkets.com | Diana Mousina

We were surprised that the Reserve Bank of Australia was quite hawkish after the August Board meeting (i.e. they still considered the need for another rate hike and said they would raise rates again if they had to) while we see little need for further rate hikes and remain concerned about how the economy will keep sustaining high interest rates. How is it possible that looking at the same sets of data figures can yield a different outlook on the economy?

Jul 15, 2024 | livewiremarkets.com | Diana Mousina

Global central banks have begun the interest rate-cutting cycle, starting with the Swiss National Bank in March, Sweden’s central bank in May and both the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank in June. And more recently, other major central banks have changed their tone towards signalling interest rate cuts sometime soon. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand shifted to an easing bias at its July meeting and financial markets are now pricing in close to three rate cuts by the end of the year.