Duncan Weldon

Hertford

Writer at Value Added

Economist, broadcaster & writer. Author of 200 Years of Muddling Through. Economics, history, other stuff.

Articles

Tariffs: a history of American protectionism

1 week ago | taxjournal.com | Duncan Weldon |Andrew Marr |David Whiscombe |Peter Vaines

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When free trade falters

1 month ago | engelsbergideas.com | Duncan Weldon

At his second inaugural address, President Donald Trump took a moment to right what he considers to be an historical wrong. The Alaska mountain, officially rechristened as Mount Denali by the Obama administration a decade ago, would be re-dubbed Mount McKinley in honour of William McKinley, the 25th President. The memory of McKinley has become something of a touchstone in the new president’s second term.
The Trump crash

2 months ago | newstatesman.com | Duncan Weldon

Wall Street’s Trump trade has turned sour. Ahead of November’s election a near-consensus developed amongst financial analysts that a second Trump administration would be excellent news for US stock markets and push the dollar higher. Investors positioned their portfolios accordingly. But since the inauguration in January, US stocks have tanked and the dollar has headed south against most major currencies. Many US economic indicators have started flashing red.
The consensus on a strong dollar may be too complacent

Jan 19, 2025 | ft.com | Duncan Weldon

The writer is the author of ‘Two Hundred Years of Muddling Through: The Surprising Story of the British Economy’ One common thread...
Why Labour should learn to love VAT

Jan 8, 2025 | newstatesman.com | Duncan Weldon

In an ideal world the Treasury would be done with tax-raising for this parliament. Last November’s Budget increased taxes by around £36bn a year, or just over 1 per cent of GDP, the second-largest tax hike of any single postwar fiscal statement. That was a necessary step to avoid further cuts to the UK’s already threadbare public services. The worry now, though, is that it will not be enough.
An economic and political gamble

Nov 1, 2024 | taxjournal.com | Duncan Weldon |Robert Waterson |Ray McCann |Oliver Marre

The first Budget of a new government is always a big moment a chance to set out a new direction. Rachel Reeves did just that at her first fiscal event embarking on an economic and political gamble that what Britain wants and needs is a much larger state. Taxes borrowing and government spending all increased markedly.
Umbrella companies: sledgehammer to crack a nut?

Nov 1, 2024 | taxjournal.com | Rebecca Harris |Robert Waterson |Duncan Weldon |Ray McCann

Surprisingly umbrella company reform made it into the Budget speech. However the initial optimism soon gave way to shock. In the policy paper 'Tackling non-compliance in the umbrella company market’ the government announced that the responsibility for PAYE where an umbrella company is used in the labour supply chain would change. From April 2026 the responsibility to account for PAYE will shift to the recruitment company.
Simplifying the taxation of offshore interest: paving the way for a fundamental shift?

Nov 1, 2024 | taxjournal.com | Ray McCann |Robert Waterson |Duncan Weldon |Oliver Marre

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Pensions

Nov 1, 2024 | taxjournal.com | Alan Macpherson |Rebecca Harris |Robert Waterson |Duncan Weldon

Good news. The Chancellor has kept to her word – with no change to the April 2024 pension tax reforms: the two new allowances LSA and LSBDA are still in place there is no return to the Lifetime Allowance no change to the higher Annual Allowance of £60k and no change to the tax relief system or the taxation of the lump sum benefit withdrawal.
Contentious tax: a mixed picture

Nov 1, 2024 | taxjournal.com | Robert Waterson |Duncan Weldon |Ray McCann |Oliver Marre

As to tax controversy and dispute resolution this Budget presents a mixed picture. Changes in existing regimes often cause uncertainty and confusion particularly if there is a gap between the enactment of legislation and HMRC Guidance being updated. Three areas of change which seem likely to lead to an increase in disputes are (1) the abolition of the non-domicile status; (2) substantive changes to the R&D tax regime; and (3) the intention to close down the scope of charity tax reliefs.