Edward Bolingbroke

Put skew waking up again as US 30-year yields look to establish above 5% level 👀 https://t.co/iql2LQoduX

Long-end Treasury yields after Moody's announcement 👀 Monday's open going to be fun... https://t.co/xTl3jTg6gP

Something afoot in the dollar swaps market today...🤔 Spreads whipsawing early on an FT de-reg piece and then out the blue volumes spike in ERIS SOFR swap futures: https://t.co/U46iWJNQl3

🚨 Whale position building in SOFR options, targets ZERO Fed rate cuts ALL YEAR 😎🐋 It’s been the stand out trade last few weeks. Size is up to ~250k / $25m premium 👇🆒 https://t.co/bEmxMhIfuB

To the relief of some, Treasury Secretary slams the door on the recent re-tightening of swap spreads: *BESSENT: SLR REFORM IS 'HIGH PRIORITY' FOR FINANCIAL REGULATOR 30-year spreads back up to -88bp, unwinding a six day drop😮‍💨 https://t.co/VtTJPagVVV

Goldman Sachs now onboard ✅ https://t.co/9RJ47kCL7D

Edward Bolingbroke @EddBolingbroke

Time to pile back into de-regulation swap spread wideners? Barclays says YES ✅ What could possibly go wrong…😬🫣 https://t.co/5A0RKet0oQ

Going into Payrolls Friday, open interest (or the amount of risk held by traders) in 5-year note futures is the most it’s ever been: https://t.co/IdMDTDgvJi

Time to pile back into de-regulation swap spread wideners? Barclays says YES ✅ What could possibly go wrong…😬🫣 https://t.co/5A0RKet0oQ

SOFR June 12-month futures spread hit new cycle lows after GDP 🧐 Data showing no need for immediate Fed cuts, but market telling us beyond the next two meetings they're coming thick and fast: https://t.co/OUJDKZ89cR

Today in options: Preparing for life after Powell? *SOFR Options Play Targets Fed Slashing Rates to Under 1% by 2026* https://t.co/1A87RN6qZF

JPM on 20-year bonds: Most sensitive to balance-sheet and leverage constraints -- “dramatic” underperformance “is a worrisome sign that suggests that banks may be starting to become concerned” 👇 https://t.co/yALVwJcd46

Feels like a big leveraged position was liquidated yesterday in US rates. CME open interest smashed across the Treasury futures complex: https://t.co/05v20NPL7S

Another quiet day in swap spreads 🤥 Long end biggest widening move in years Bowman’s VC for supervision senate hearing tomorrow 👀 https://t.co/KFZ1C6ckMO

Complete meltdown in swap spreads today😵 The horse has bolted on the populated de-regulation widener trades👇 https://t.co/MkBvGvvvr0

UST 20-year sector getting smacked on the curve. JPM have noted this sector as most sensitive to balance-sheet and leverage constraints: underperformance “is a worrisome sign that suggests that banks may be starting to become concerned”

ACLLC @acllc2

USTs: 20yr point taking the biggest hit on the curve today -23.4 bps last (30yr -22.2) Likewise ZB was the weakest on the futures curve: FOB 3xZF-1xZB +1'13 BOB 3xZB-2xUB -0'30 on a weighted fly, long ZB -5'032 https://t.co/i4RfXpknbI

Big turnaround: JPMorgan now see Fed cuts at every meeting through January, bringing the top of the funds rate target range down to 3.0%. SIX consecutive cuts. Starting June. 😳

Long-end swap spreads on the move again…have now unwound the impulse deregulation widening move…fun while it lasted https://t.co/I7WR6mHkZH

Edward Bolingbroke @EddBolingbroke

Under the radar. Today’s narrowing in long-end swap spreads was the biggest so far this year… Looks like some signs of push-back to the once popular de-regulation widener trade…👇😮‍💨 https://t.co/5AkK9zpebL