Edward Bolingbroke

Complete meltdown in swap spreads today😵 The horse has bolted on the populated de-regulation widener trades👇 https://t.co/MkBvGvvvr0

UST 20-year sector getting smacked on the curve. JPM have noted this sector as most sensitive to balance-sheet and leverage constraints: underperformance “is a worrisome sign that suggests that banks may be starting to become concerned”

ACLLC @acllc2

USTs: 20yr point taking the biggest hit on the curve today -23.4 bps last (30yr -22.2) Likewise ZB was the weakest on the futures curve: FOB 3xZF-1xZB +1'13 BOB 3xZB-2xUB -0'30 on a weighted fly, long ZB -5'032 https://t.co/i4RfXpknbI

Big turnaround: JPMorgan now see Fed cuts at every meeting through January, bringing the top of the funds rate target range down to 3.0%. SIX consecutive cuts. Starting June. 😳

Long-end swap spreads on the move again…have now unwound the impulse deregulation widening move…fun while it lasted https://t.co/I7WR6mHkZH

Edward Bolingbroke @EddBolingbroke

Under the radar. Today’s narrowing in long-end swap spreads was the biggest so far this year… Looks like some signs of push-back to the once popular de-regulation widener trade…👇😮‍💨 https://t.co/5AkK9zpebL

Under the radar. Today’s narrowing in long-end swap spreads was the biggest so far this year… Looks like some signs of push-back to the once popular de-regulation widener trade…👇😮‍💨 https://t.co/5AkK9zpebL

Decent amount of cut premium has come out of swaps pricing over the past week, while SOFR options has leant to downside protection Feels like market leaning toward a hawkish Fed outcome Wednesday… https://t.co/CwjRTP17Ka

Four-day widening streak now in swap spreads since Bowman supervisory talk ratcheted up 👀 https://t.co/os047rwnlP

Stephen Spratt @StephenSpratt

Bowman to the rescue? 10y spreads have been re-widening the past two sessions since a White House official confirmed she is top pick for the vice chair for supervision.

Todays winner… Biggest ever Treasury futures block bagging approx. $50 million mark-to-market profit in one day😎 Big time player. 🥇 https://t.co/D9QV3aKoPr

JPMorgan Treasury clients net long position rises to BIGGEST IN 15 YEARS 🚨 Recession scares building…👇 https://t.co/6YOwmsy8nh

Traders have been scrambling for options to hedge a bigger Treasuries rally, targeting a US 10-year yield move toward 4% Premium on recession plays has hit a six-month high 🚀🚀 https://t.co/g1z5rtCHo7

HUGE Treasury options position built Tuesday in May 10-year calls. Over 100k lifted for premium in $60 million region 😮‍💨 ➡️ Profits $40 million at 4% yield, up to around $280 million if we get back to September lows…🎯🤑 Money going to work on recession trades…👇 https://t.co/UamcupMptA

‼️Fed funds futures trader on a mission today 🥷🥷 Already record volumes in May contract boosted by 110k via three block buys😮‍💨🤑 Lots of buying recently vs. 1-month SOFR, today's looks more outright…May Fed cut back in play? 😏🤭👇 https://t.co/EDjpSfOOXK

The bid goes on...long-end spreads hit widest in over a year today 🕺🏽👋 BARCLAYS now onboard, recommend 7-year spread wideners, target ADDITIONAL 10bp move: 😎😎 https://t.co/uAniT82a4o

Edward Bolingbroke @EddBolingbroke

Long-end swap spreads on fire over Powell testimony 🔥🔥 30-year at widest in over a year 😮‍💨 Massive move over the past week🚀🚀 *POWELL: THINK IT'S TIME TO MOVE ON SUPPLEMENTAL LEVERAGE RATIO *POWELL: STRONGLY THINK LOWER REQUIREMENTS WOULD BOOST LIQUIDITY @TheTerminal 👇 https://t.co/7imjzXIoIy

Long-end swap spreads on fire over Powell testimony 🔥🔥 30-year at widest in over a year 😮‍💨 Massive move over the past week🚀🚀 *POWELL: THINK IT'S TIME TO MOVE ON SUPPLEMENTAL LEVERAGE RATIO *POWELL: STRONGLY THINK LOWER REQUIREMENTS WOULD BOOST LIQUIDITY @TheTerminal 👇 https://t.co/7imjzXIoIy

Dollar swap spreads (SOFR) on a tear up this week. Three-day move is most aggressive since March 2022 (Fed hike cycle start)…😮‍💨 Why? ☑️ Softening language around Treasury supply (QRA, Bessent) ☑️ Liquidity/G-SIB surcharge regulation chat (Bowman) 🚀🚀👇 https://t.co/q37n9vbIgu

Canada 2-year yield spread vs. Treasuries collapse to tightest since 1997 😤 Fed cuts coming out while Bank of Canada swaps ramp-up pricing of an emergency inter-meeting move…💀👇 https://t.co/Qr0XhhGOTs

🚨 *TRUMP TARIFFS ON CANADA, MEXICO TO BEGIN ON MARCH 1: REUTERS A month of negotiation…headline supporting CAD and taking out some Bank of Canada cut premium priced into the next March policy meeting👇 https://t.co/OVx5Rx47GP