Edward Bolingbroke

Going into Payrolls Friday, open interest (or the amount of risk held by traders) in 5-year note futures is the most it’s ever been: https://t.co/IdMDTDgvJi

Time to pile back into de-regulation swap spread wideners? Barclays says YES ✅ What could possibly go wrong…😬🫣 https://t.co/5A0RKet0oQ

SOFR June 12-month futures spread hit new cycle lows after GDP 🧐 Data showing no need for immediate Fed cuts, but market telling us beyond the next two meetings they're coming thick and fast: https://t.co/OUJDKZ89cR

Today in options: Preparing for life after Powell? *SOFR Options Play Targets Fed Slashing Rates to Under 1% by 2026* https://t.co/1A87RN6qZF

JPM on 20-year bonds: Most sensitive to balance-sheet and leverage constraints -- “dramatic” underperformance “is a worrisome sign that suggests that banks may be starting to become concerned” 👇 https://t.co/yALVwJcd46

Feels like a big leveraged position was liquidated yesterday in US rates. CME open interest smashed across the Treasury futures complex: https://t.co/05v20NPL7S

Another quiet day in swap spreads 🤥 Long end biggest widening move in years Bowman’s VC for supervision senate hearing tomorrow 👀 https://t.co/KFZ1C6ckMO

Complete meltdown in swap spreads today😵 The horse has bolted on the populated de-regulation widener trades👇 https://t.co/MkBvGvvvr0

UST 20-year sector getting smacked on the curve. JPM have noted this sector as most sensitive to balance-sheet and leverage constraints: underperformance “is a worrisome sign that suggests that banks may be starting to become concerned”

ACLLC @acllc2

USTs: 20yr point taking the biggest hit on the curve today -23.4 bps last (30yr -22.2) Likewise ZB was the weakest on the futures curve: FOB 3xZF-1xZB +1'13 BOB 3xZB-2xUB -0'30 on a weighted fly, long ZB -5'032 https://t.co/i4RfXpknbI

Big turnaround: JPMorgan now see Fed cuts at every meeting through January, bringing the top of the funds rate target range down to 3.0%. SIX consecutive cuts. Starting June. 😳

Long-end swap spreads on the move again…have now unwound the impulse deregulation widening move…fun while it lasted https://t.co/I7WR6mHkZH

Edward Bolingbroke @EddBolingbroke

Under the radar. Today’s narrowing in long-end swap spreads was the biggest so far this year… Looks like some signs of push-back to the once popular de-regulation widener trade…👇😮‍💨 https://t.co/5AkK9zpebL

Under the radar. Today’s narrowing in long-end swap spreads was the biggest so far this year… Looks like some signs of push-back to the once popular de-regulation widener trade…👇😮‍💨 https://t.co/5AkK9zpebL

Decent amount of cut premium has come out of swaps pricing over the past week, while SOFR options has leant to downside protection Feels like market leaning toward a hawkish Fed outcome Wednesday… https://t.co/CwjRTP17Ka

Four-day widening streak now in swap spreads since Bowman supervisory talk ratcheted up 👀 https://t.co/os047rwnlP

Stephen Spratt @StephenSpratt

Bowman to the rescue? 10y spreads have been re-widening the past two sessions since a White House official confirmed she is top pick for the vice chair for supervision.

Todays winner… Biggest ever Treasury futures block bagging approx. $50 million mark-to-market profit in one day😎 Big time player. 🥇 https://t.co/D9QV3aKoPr

JPMorgan Treasury clients net long position rises to BIGGEST IN 15 YEARS 🚨 Recession scares building…👇 https://t.co/6YOwmsy8nh

Traders have been scrambling for options to hedge a bigger Treasuries rally, targeting a US 10-year yield move toward 4% Premium on recession plays has hit a six-month high 🚀🚀 https://t.co/g1z5rtCHo7