Edward Harrison

United States

Senior Editor, Bloomberg Media at Bloomberg News

Senior Editor @business

Articles

No, the Fed Won’t Bail Out Trump (or Equities)

1 week ago | bloomberg.com | Edward Harrison

This article is for subscribers only. Equity markets have already sniffed it out: The pressure on Donald Trump to make trade deals is too great to think tariffs won’t come down from the lofty levels advertised on “Liberation Day.” The question is whether the deals come too little too late — and if so, whether the Federal Reserve will bail out the president. If you look at where stocks and bonds are trading, it’s clear many investors are betting that central bankers will ride to the rescue.
Investors Are Fleeing US Assets as Global Financial Crisis, Recession Loom

2 weeks ago | bloomberg.com | Edward Harrison

US President Donald Trump’s ‘America First’ economic revolution has quickly turned into ‘America Last’ as far as financial markets go. So many investors have been dumping US assets wholesale that we recently saw equities, bonds and the US dollar all decline in a self-feeding doom loop that hasn’t only hurt the value of American financial assets. If Trump persists, it threatens to cause an extended bear market and a financial crisis.
Stock Market Jitters Aren’t Just About Trump

3 weeks ago | bloomberg.com | Edward Harrison

This article is for subscribers only. It seems the bond vigilantes have claimed another victim — Donald Trump. The recent correction in US asset prices encompassing equities, the dollar and, crucially, Treasury bonds has caused the president to cave on much of his tariff bluster. He’s also eased back on his tough talk against Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. That’s a good thing for the US and global economy, but a lot of damage has been done. I, for one, still expect a recession.
We Are Still Heading Into a Bear Market

1 month ago | bloomberg.com | Edward Harrison

This article is for subscribers only. This isn’t the newsletter piece I had intended or even wanted to write. But given the massive tariff levies, the 90-day pause for non-retaliation and wild market gyrations we are now seeing, events over the last 24 hours have overtaken my plans. As it stands, the S&P 500 just about tipped into a bear market before news that there was a 90-day reprieve caused a huge relief rally.
How Markets Are Assessing Trump's Grand Tariff Experiment

1 month ago | bloomberg.com | Edward Harrison

This is Washington Edition, the newsletter about money, power and politics in the nation’s capital. Today, senior editor Edward Harrison, author of Bloomberg’s Everything Risk newsletter, assesses the market reaction to the president’s tariffs. Sign up here and follow us at @bpolitics. Email our editors here. We’ve never seen an experiment with macroeconomic policy this large. I’m talking about the sweepingtariffs President Donald Trump announced today, of course.
Bond Traders Want a Recession Stock Investors Don’t

1 month ago | bloomberg.com | Edward Harrison

This article is for subscribers only. It’s so-called Liberation Day, the day when US President Donald Trump is expected to announce the most expansive trade restrictions in a century. The announcement is slated to take place after US financial markets close but, apparently, his team is still hashing out the details as I write this. Investors have already made up their minds, with bonds trading as if a recession is a major risk and stocks doing their darnedest not to price that in.
Vibecessions Aren’t Actual Recessions

1 month ago | bloomberg.com | Edward Harrison

I’m getting that deja vu feeling. Suddenly everyone is talking about a ‘vibecession’ in the US, with the understandable fear that it signals an actual recession is not far behind. I share those concerns because of the risks from the huge policy shifts under US President Donald Trump and his burgeoning trade war. But the US economy still looks remarkably resilient.
The Stagflation Risks Are Bigger Than the Fed Thinks

1 month ago | bloomberg.com | Edward Harrison

This article is for subscribers only. Stock investors don’t like slow economic growth because that means slower earnings growth, too, which is a headwind for equity prices. And they don’t like inflation because that erodes the present value of future earnings, a different and often more substantial headwind for stocks. If you combine the two — slow growth and higher inflation -- you get the worst of all worlds. So investors rightfully absolutely hate stagflation.
The End of US Exceptionalism Should Benefit Europe Most

2 months ago | bloomberg.com | Edward Harrison

This article is for subscribers only. American exceptionalism is probably dead. I’m not talking about the US entrepreneurial model that has fueled Silicon Valley and spawned the tech giants that dominate US markets. No, I’m talking about that model’s ability to consistently deliver higher earnings growth to fuel US market outperformance. Going forward, as the US retrenches that growth will move to Europe, benefitting European equities after seven long years of underperformance.
Is the Super Bubble in US Stocks Finally Popping?

2 months ago | bloomberg.com | Edward Harrison

This article is for subscribers only. The Trump administration’s early actions have been long on policy measures seen as stoking inflation and curbing growth, without the offsetting tax relief as of yet. This has a lot of people raising alarms about recession and market risks. For his part, President Trump told Congress last night, “There’ll be a little disturbance, but we’re OK with that. It won’t be much.” Should we believe him though?