Edward Harrison

United States

Senior Editor, Bloomberg Media at Bloomberg News

Senior Editor @business

Articles

We Are Still Heading Into a Bear Market

2 weeks ago | bloomberg.com | Edward Harrison

This article is for subscribers only. This isn’t the newsletter piece I had intended or even wanted to write. But given the massive tariff levies, the 90-day pause for non-retaliation and wild market gyrations we are now seeing, events over the last 24 hours have overtaken my plans. As it stands, the S&P 500 just about tipped into a bear market before news that there was a 90-day reprieve caused a huge relief rally.
How Markets Are Assessing Trump's Grand Tariff Experiment

3 weeks ago | bloomberg.com | Edward Harrison

This is Washington Edition, the newsletter about money, power and politics in the nation’s capital. Today, senior editor Edward Harrison, author of Bloomberg’s Everything Risk newsletter, assesses the market reaction to the president’s tariffs. Sign up here and follow us at @bpolitics. Email our editors here. We’ve never seen an experiment with macroeconomic policy this large. I’m talking about the sweepingtariffs President Donald Trump announced today, of course.
Bond Traders Want a Recession Stock Investors Don’t

3 weeks ago | bloomberg.com | Edward Harrison

This article is for subscribers only. It’s so-called Liberation Day, the day when US President Donald Trump is expected to announce the most expansive trade restrictions in a century. The announcement is slated to take place after US financial markets close but, apparently, his team is still hashing out the details as I write this. Investors have already made up their minds, with bonds trading as if a recession is a major risk and stocks doing their darnedest not to price that in.
Vibecessions Aren’t Actual Recessions

4 weeks ago | bloomberg.com | Edward Harrison

I’m getting that deja vu feeling. Suddenly everyone is talking about a ‘vibecession’ in the US, with the understandable fear that it signals an actual recession is not far behind. I share those concerns because of the risks from the huge policy shifts under US President Donald Trump and his burgeoning trade war. But the US economy still looks remarkably resilient.
The Stagflation Risks Are Bigger Than the Fed Thinks

1 month ago | bloomberg.com | Edward Harrison

This article is for subscribers only. Stock investors don’t like slow economic growth because that means slower earnings growth, too, which is a headwind for equity prices. And they don’t like inflation because that erodes the present value of future earnings, a different and often more substantial headwind for stocks. If you combine the two — slow growth and higher inflation -- you get the worst of all worlds. So investors rightfully absolutely hate stagflation.
The End of US Exceptionalism Should Benefit Europe Most

1 month ago | bloomberg.com | Edward Harrison

This article is for subscribers only. American exceptionalism is probably dead. I’m not talking about the US entrepreneurial model that has fueled Silicon Valley and spawned the tech giants that dominate US markets. No, I’m talking about that model’s ability to consistently deliver higher earnings growth to fuel US market outperformance. Going forward, as the US retrenches that growth will move to Europe, benefitting European equities after seven long years of underperformance.
Is the Super Bubble in US Stocks Finally Popping?

1 month ago | bloomberg.com | Edward Harrison

This article is for subscribers only. The Trump administration’s early actions have been long on policy measures seen as stoking inflation and curbing growth, without the offsetting tax relief as of yet. This has a lot of people raising alarms about recession and market risks. For his part, President Trump told Congress last night, “There’ll be a little disturbance, but we’re OK with that. It won’t be much.” Should we believe him though?
Stock Market Is Nowhere Near a Bearish Tipping Point

1 month ago | bloomberg.com | Edward Harrison

This article is for subscribers only. Over the past week, the market has been playing out my thesis about market risks being larger than institutional investors think. But while I’m more bearish than bullish on risk assets these days, I don’t think we’ve reached an actionable tipping point. These are just jitters. The potential for new equity highs still exists if the economic and market risks fade.
Are Investors Too Bearish? We’re About to Find Out

2 months ago | bloomberg.com | Edward Harrison

This article is for subscribers only. According to a highly-regarded survey, individual investors are the most bearish they’ve been since late 2023. Perhaps worries about inflation, job cuts, and tariffs are all sinking in at once. From a trading standpoint, how should we interpret this? After all, extreme bullishness or bearishness is generally seen as a contrary indicator. With that in mind, I initially wondered whether this could be a signal to move in the opposite direction.
Stagflation Isn’t Good For Asset Prices

2 months ago | bloomberg.com | Edward Harrison

It’s all about inflation now. Not only are we starting to realize that price moderation bottomed in September — just as the Fed was delivering a jumbo rate cut — we’re also seeing seriously inflationary policies from the Trump Administration on the horizon. That’s not good for stocks or bonds. But it’s worse for stocks if you add in the potential economic slowing associated with tariffs that will likely hit earnings. Stagflation.