EJ Antoni

Reverse repo facility down below $55 billion, lowest level since Apr '21; Tax Day is probably accounting for some of this drain, but the trend is clear, and the Fed knows it; soon they'll switch to repo operations, then QT ends entirely: https://t.co/mXa6xbf8Pn

The initial state JOLTS data for Feb seems reasonably close to private data; once the effects of tariffs become clear over the coming months, we'll have a better idea whether or not the slide in job openings has finally been arrested: https://t.co/MaW8WDgeL3

Retail inventories shrank again in Feb after adjusting for inflation; shockingly, these inventories are priced 25% higher than they were 6 years ago, but the amount of physical stuff in these inventories has actually fallen about 1% over that time - the difference was inflation: https://t.co/gztdLGcF7E

Home builder sentiment sees a slight uptick for Apr but remains at very low levels; the combination of record high input costs and relatively high interest rates has severely strained the industry, cutting sentiment to half of where it was 3 years ago: https://t.co/3ilYCJfu75

While business inventories rose again in Feb to a new record high and up 28% from 6 years ago, that's been all inflation - in real terms (adjusted for prices), inventories haven't budged during that time: https://t.co/6m1dBNdFbT

The higher manufacturing and trade inventory prices in Jan and Feb weren't the result of more physical stuff in warehouses, but just inflation pushing up prices; real values have declined each month since Oct: https://t.co/5DAj7ePXX1

The Tax Day surge pushed Treasury cash back over $600 billion yesterday, and there's likely more to come; this is essentially breathing room while Congress and the White House all work to hammer out a deal on tax cuts and a debt ceiling extension: https://t.co/lZXPXWy7ry

Industrial production and capacity utilization declined slightly in Mar but that was just the result of Feb being revised higher - the Mar figures are inline w/ the previous estimate for Feb; now we wait and see what the effect of tariffs will be... https://t.co/x431E7FDqM

Retail sales surged in Mar and, for the first time in a long time, it had nothing to do w/ inflation; instead, this was a real increase, but nominal values are still seriously inflated from the last 5 years of money printing: https://t.co/RjXs33r9GX

Strong retail sales for Mar saw a surge in autos but it seems unlikely this was frontrunning tariffs b/c we had no idea how widespread (and high) the tariffs would be until April 2nd; could've just been from interest on short-term auto loans dropping 100bps over a couple months: https://t.co/T001F99wIT

ATL Fed's GDP forecast rises again and is barely negative at -0.1% after adjusting for gold flows while NY Fed is predicting 2.59% and STL Fed's forecast is 2.87% - it's not all doom and gloom: https://t.co/JuFcOOm8S2

The surge in inflation during Jan dragged down real median earnings for Q1 '25 - after 4 years, the typical American wage earner has gone backwards, w/ inflation-adjusted earnings down 0.8% despite a 21.3% nominal increase: https://t.co/EZUR1w04rn

NY Fed: service sector activity declines sharply again for Apr while future expectations collapsed to lowest levels since covid lockdowns and anticipated business climate plunged to worst level since '09 - terrible report in stark contrast to good retail data... https://t.co/mNiGEM7I6z

CHI Fed: national financial conditions have been tightening noticeably since the end of Jan and that trend is poised to continue but have to keep this in context - we're still considerably looser than historical norm https://t.co/plY7kOLqdv

Expectations of higher equity prices 12 months from now fell sharply from Jan to Mar, now barely exceeding one-in-three: @cmt_anthony https://t.co/VwC4e9XEG9