Eli Tyre

Mar 6, 2024 | lesswrong.com | Ben Pace |Zach Stein-Perlman |Victor Ashioya |Eli Tyre

I assign >10% that Anthropic will at some point pause development for at least a year as a result of safety evaluations. I think that if Anthropic cannot make a certain product-line safe and then they pivot to scaling up a different kind of model / product-line, I am not counting this as 'pausing development'.

Nov 21, 2023 | lesswrong.com | Eli Tyre |Stephen McAleese |Ben Pace |Oliver Sourbut

I've seen/heard a bunch of people in the LW-o-sphere saying that the OpenAI corporate drama this past weekend was clearly bad. And I'm not really sure why people think that? To me, seems like a pretty clearly positive outcome overall. I'm curious why in the world people are unhappy about it (people in the LW-sphere, that is, obviously I can see why e.g. AI accelerationists would be unhappy about it). And I also want to lay out my models. Here's the high-gloss version of my take.

Oct 18, 2023 | lesswrong.com | Eli Tyre |Spencer Becker-Kahn |Mo Putera

Judea Pearl is a famous researcher, known for Bayesian networks (the standard way of representing Bayesian models), and his statistical formalization of causality. Although he has always been recommended reading here, he's less of a staple compared to, say, Jaynes. So the need to re-introduce him. My purpose here is to highlight a soothing, unexpected show of rationality on his part. One year ago I reviewed his last book, The Book of Why, in a failed submission to the ACX book review contest.

Jul 24, 2023 | lesswrong.com | Eli Tyre |Matt Goldenberg |Gordon Worley |Christopher King

The word 'rational' is properly used to talk about cognitive algorithms which systematically promote map-territory correspondences or goal achievement. I disagree with the definition "systematically promote map-territory correspondences" because for me it is "maps all the way down", we never ever perceive the territory directly, we perceive and manipulate the world via models (maps). Finding models that work (that enable goal achievement/winning) is the essence of intelligence.