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1 week ago | 
fullertreacymoney.substack.com | Eoin Treacy
Gold shares breaking out as gold repriced as a reserve asset, bonds stable, Wall Street rebound tires, oil and copper pause. India extends rebound.
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1 week ago | 
fullertreacymoney.substack.com | Eoin Treacy
Correction: I contacted Shuli Ren at Bloomberg to confirm the number I quoted from her article in yesterday’s commentary. The impact of a 1 basis point move in yields for the US government should be $1 billion not $100 billion. This is a case of trust but verify, and I did not verify. That does not negate the sensitivity of the US administration to lurches in the Treasury market, although it certainly changes the calculus. $100 billion per basis point sounded high.
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1 week ago | 
fullertreacymoney.substack.com | Eoin Treacy
Treasuries bounce on easing tariff stress as a reward for good behaviour, stocks extend rebounds globally, soft commodities firm, energy remains weak, gold steady.
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1 week ago | 
fullertreacymoney.substack.com | Eoin Treacy
There is a much quoted quip from James Carville that he would like to be reincarnated as the bond market because “you can intimidate everyone.”I think it is important to note that Carville said that during Bill Clinton’s tenure in 1994. By the end of the decade the USA was retiring the 30-year bond amid large budget surpluses. From that perspective maybe the bond market was correct to rein in the worst spending inclinations of the political class.
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1 week ago | 
fullertreacymoney.substack.com | Eoin Treacy
14th April 2025|Eoin TreacyThis is confirmation that we opened the payday trade window as planned this afternoon at 2:30pm. Action to take: Open Dow Jones position at 2:30pm today (US market open)Trade: Payday Window 7Ticker: DMM5 (US 30 – June 2025 on CMC Markets)Opening Level: 40,951Stop: 39,951All the best,Eoin TreacyInvestment Director, Reflex Trader
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1 week ago | 
fullertreacymoney.substack.com | Eoin Treacy
Name: Glencore PlcTicker: GLEN LNMarket Cap: £30.6 billionBuy up to: 275pTarget: 500pBond Vigilantes Rule. An important but uncomfortable question for investors is whether the Trump administration has any idea of what they are doing.? They seem to be improvising on the fly. That’s one of the only rationales I can think of to explain the on again, off agai…
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1 week ago | 
fullertreacymoney.substack.com | Eoin Treacy
The next Payday Window opens today. Millions of Americans are just about to get paid and retirement accounts are going to be flush with cash that needs to be invested. If all goes well we are about to get paid too. Action to take: buy the Dow Jones Industrial Average Trade: Payday Window 7
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1 week ago | 
fullertreacymoney.substack.com | Eoin Treacy
Vendor Financing Gone WrongAhead of the Global Financial Crisis companies like General Motors had their own yield curve. The company has issued debt at every maturity and its commercial paper was among the most liquid. The company made much more money from financing its vehicles than selling them, which is great when demand is robust. It does not work very well when demand evaporates. The crisis exposed two important lessons.
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1 week ago | 
fullertreacymoney.substack.com | Eoin Treacy
My dalliance with trading the Dow Jones Industrials Average did not go so well yesterday. When I closed my Nasdaq-100 short and bought the Dow I was hoping the tariff reprieve rebound would last more than a day. Instead the position was stopped out at a loss. I should have remembered that we are in the middle of the off season for Payday Windows. The next…
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2 weeks ago | 
fullertreacymoney.substack.com | Eoin Treacy
The stock market rebounded impressively yesterday as shorts covered and dip buyers surged back into the market. Treasury yields had spiked on the threat of tariffs and retested the 4.5% before the announcement of a 90-day delay on the imposition of many tariffs on smaller trading partners. Even though the stock market, cryptocurrencies, gold, and other commodities rebounded, the impact on the bond market was much more muted.
