Erich Grunewald

2 weeks ago | cnas.org | Vivek Chilukuri |Samuel Bendett |Erich Grunewald |Tim Fist

Based on the available evidence, artificial intelligence (AI) chip smuggling has likely been occurring at a scale that significantly undermines U.S. attempts to restrict the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC’s) access to advanced AI. This is indicated by four lines of argument:Smuggling should be expected based on historical precedent.

Jan 8, 2024 | cnas.org | Erich Grunewald |Tim Fist

This comment represents the views of the authors alone and not those of their employers.1 The authors commend the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) for the Advanced Computing/Supercomputing interim final rule (AC/S IFR). The AC/S IFR takes essential steps to continue to improve export controls in this domain. The authors welcome the opportunity to comment on the AC/S IFR, with the hope of informing further refinements of BIS’ approach to export controls on AI-related technologies.

Sep 11, 2023 | 80000hours.org | Erich Grunewald

In 1965, Gordon Moore observed that the number of transistors you can fit onto a chip seemed to double every year. He boldly predicted, “Integrated circuits will lead to such wonders as home computers[,] automatic controls for automobiles, and personal portable communications equipment.”1Moore later revised his estimate to every two years, but the doubling trend held, eventually becoming known as Moore’s Law.

Aug 9, 2023 | cnas.org | Tim Fist |Erich Grunewald

China cannot legally import the most advanced artificial intelligence (AI) chips or the tooling to produce them. The large and growing computational requirements of the most powerful AI systems mean that these chips are nonetheless in high demand.