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1 week ago | 
forex.com | James Stanley |David Song |Fawad Razaqzada
Tomorrow brings a rate decision from the European Central Bank with the wide expectation for a 25 bp cut. Despite that expectation EUR/USD has been breaking out over the past two months, setting a fresh three-year high just last Friday. The weekly EUR/USD chart is overbought and sellers had an open door to run a pullback at the start of this week – but they could not get below the 1.1275 Fibonacci level and bulls have since used that price as a springboard from higher-low support.
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1 week ago | 
forex.com | James Stanley |Fawad Razaqzada |Matt Simpson |David Scutt
U.S. Dollar bulls have had an open door to run a pullback from oversold conditions but so far this week, they’ve failed to push through short-term resistance levels. The larger drivers remain with Chair Powell’s speech later today and then the European Central Bank rate decision tomorrow, ahead of the Good Friday holiday and the long weekend in the United States. Last week saw the US Dollar go oversold on the weekly chart for only the second time in the past seven years.
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1 week ago | 
forex.com | Fawad Razaqzada |David Song |David Scutt
The USD/JPY eased lower as US stock markets wobbled. Technology sector took a hit thanks to sharp falls in Nvidia, AMD and ASML. While trade tensions flared up again, sentiment was not significantly bearish thanks to news, courtesy of Bloomberg, that China may be open to fresh talks — provided President Trump reins in his more hawkish aides and shows respect. It remains to be seen whether talks between the two sides will start soon and whether a trade agreement will be struck.
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1 week ago | 
forex.com | James Stanley |Fawad Razaqzada |David Song
It’s been a big move in equities over the past couple of weeks and the question now is whether sellers use this bounce to fade the rip or whether buyers continue to push. In the webinar, I went in-depth on several macro markets and in this write-up, I touch on a few of the high points. To access this webinar in real-time, click here for registration information. While last week opened with cries of a ‘possible black Monday,’ a week later the premise of such seems non-sensical.
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1 week ago | 
forex.com | David Song |David Scutt |Fawad Razaqzada |Razan Hilal
US Dollar Outlook: USD/JPYUSD/JPY defends the monthly low (142.05) to keep the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 30, but the exchange rate may track the negative slope in the 50-Day SMA (149.22) as it holds below the moving average. Keep in mind, USD/JPY cleared the October low (142.97) even as US President Donald Trump paused the reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, and the exchange rate may attempt to test the 2024 low (139.58) as the shift in US trade policy raises the threat of a recession.
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1 week ago | 
forex.com | James Stanley |Fawad Razaqzada |David Scutt
The weekly chart of DXY went oversold for the first time since last August, and chasing prices lower with that backdrop can fast become complicated such as we saw in Q3 of last year. From that prior episode, we can also see where oversold doesn’t automatically mean a strong reversal, as it took more than a month for prices to turn and at this point sellers still have an open door to continue bearish DXY trends. Central bank rate decisions out of Canada and Europe could sway the matter this week.
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1 week ago | 
forex.com | Fawad Razaqzada |Razan Hilal |David Scutt |James Stanley
In what is rapidly turning into a financial drama worthy of a West End stage, global markets find themselves gripped by fresh uncertainty, courtesy of a worsening US-China trade confrontation. Unsurprisingly, the US dollar has taken a hammering. The greenback, often a barometer of market anxiety, slid overnight to its lowest level in six months. Stock index futures, meanwhile, see-sawed between gains and losses, offering little in the way of stability ahead of key US data.
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2 weeks ago | 
investing.com | Gabriel Osorio-Mazzilli |Fawad Razaqzada
This week saw one of the most epic reversals in the US indices. On Wednesday, the added about 9.5% for the day, posting the third largest gain in its 75-year history and rebounding nine-tenths of the decline caused by stiff tariffs. Market sentiment is still just 16, an extreme fear zone. However, this is a sharp rise out of the single-digit area (3-4 since the beginning of the week).
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2 weeks ago | 
forex.com | David Song |James Stanley |Fawad Razaqzada |Matt Simpson
Euro Outlook: EUR/USDEUR/USD bounces back ahead of the monthly low (1.0778) to clear the 2024 high (1.1214), with the rise in the exchange rate pushing the Relative Strength Index (RSI) back into overbought territory. EUR/USD rallies to a fresh yearly high (1.1242) after completing a cup-and-handle formation earlier this month, and the move above 70 in the RSI is likely to be accompanied by a further advance in the exchange rate like the price action from earlier this year.
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2 weeks ago | 
forex.com | James Stanley |Fawad Razaqzada |David Scutt |David Song
USD/JPY has shown some extreme volatility this week as it’s been multiple bounces between 145 support and 148 resistance. With U.S. inflation come in below expectations and potential for more U.S. rate cuts on the way, there could be additional motive for carry trades to unwind, and as we saw last year, that could be a de-leveraging event across global risk assets.
