Feeping Creature

Jan 24, 2024 | lesswrong.com | Feeping Creature |Seth Herd |Lukas Finnveden |Rohin Shah

I agree it helps to run experiments at small scales first, but I'd be pretty surprised if that helped to the point of enabling a 30x speedup -- that means that the AI labor allows you get 30x improvement in compute needed beyond what would be done by default by humans (though the 30x can include e.g. improving utilization, it's not limited just to making individual experiments take less time).

Mar 1, 2023 | lesswrong.com | Neel Nanda |Jalex Stark |Feeping Creature |Sam FM

~ A Parable of Forecasting Under Model Uncertainty ~You, the monarch, need to know when the rainy season will begin, in order to properly time the planting of the crops. You have two advisors, Pronto and Eternidad, who you trust exactly equally. You ask them both: "When will the next heavy rain occur?"Pronto says, "Three weeks from today."Eternidad says, "Ten years from today.""Good," you say.